(07-01-2022, 02:02 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(06-26-2022, 09:32 PM)Predator Wrote: No one is talking about red zone opportunities, that is something applicable to a QB's TD numbers not a RB. It's a pretty ignorant argument to try to apply that to a RB. It's like saying you are holding a QB scoring numbers back because coach is more likely to run the ball from inside the 5 yard line.

Short yardage scoring situations apply to a RB and Fred was pulled only occasionally in short yardage scoring situations outside of 2002. Not uncommon practice throughout the league that other RB's get the opportunity in a short yardage scoring situation especially after your main RB gets no gain or takes a loss which their are multiple occasions of that happening to Fred. I know this because unlike you, I took the time to research.

The fact is when healthy, Fred by far received the majority of the carries every year and for every coach he played for while in Jax. The fact that he didn't convert all those carries into scores isn't on the coaches.

If you don't like my analysis, feel free to base anything you are saying on something besides pure conjecture and third person hearsay from an unsubstantiated source on what was said behind the scenes.

It's pretty idiotic that you still keep blaming Coughlin under whom Fred had his 4 best scoring seasons and one of those seasons he only played in 10 games with 9 starts. This just shows how little knowledge you actually have on the situation.

Until you take the time to do some actual research, I am the only producing any tangible facts and those facts aren't supporting your conjecture.

OK 

I had 15 minutes to look this up for you. Lots to unpack here.



1. Red Zone opportunities are very relevant here. (red zone touches/attempts are really moreso what I'm referring to)
Backs with more touches in the RZ produce more TDs.  Robbing a back of those opportunities keeps their TD numbers mitigated and leads to fans cobbling together ill informed opinions about the back's goal line prowess.  For example, your own.

2. I've already noted the correction about the degree of Coughlin's involvement but I'll make it clear for you momentarily how it was indeed Tom Coughlin who began this "narrative" among fans and players that Taylor shouldn't be denied RZ touches.

3. This is important to understand:
From 1998-2007 (Fred's prime)  there were only three seasons that Fred Taylor received the clear lion's share of red zone touches among the running backs on the roster.
Those seasons were 1998, 2000 and  2003

1n 1998 Fred had 45 touches in the red zone and that produced 11 RZ rushing TDS and 2 RZ receiving TDs.  (13 of his 14 TDs that season came from these RZ touches)
In 2000 Fred had 55 RZ touches. Those touches produced 9 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. (11 of his 12 TDs that season.
You will notice that 1999 was skipped. There is good reason. 1999 was the year that Coughlin took away Fred's RZ touches and without question began the "narrative" that I have merely recalled here. Again - I'm not sure why you don't recall it as it was a popular debate at the time among fans and local media.
Coughlin gave Fred 29 RZ touches that year and gave 61 RZ touches to the other backs, primarily James Stewart. Fred only produced 6 TDs that season as a result.

4. This should be at least beginning to illustrate to you why red zone attempts/touches are important for analyzing Fred's career statistics - and it should be beginning to paint a picture of a negative trend that I will elaborate on further, statistically.

Here are the RZ rush attempts for Taylor and his RB teammates from 2002-2007 (2001 was an injury year) :

2002:
Fred - 35 attempts  ,  Stacey Mack 28 attempts,  QBs 9 att
2003:
Fred - 52 attempts , others 23 attempts,  I won't bother with QB att each year - it ranges from 7-16 att every year
2004:
Fred - 29 att , other RBs 29 att
2005:
Fred - 26  - other RBs 38
2006: 
Fred - 32 - other RBs  - 39
2007: 
Fred - 20 att - other RBs - 68



5. In the 3 seasons that Fred Taylor was trusted with the work load in the RZ, he averaged 10.6 TD per season. And most of them came from RZ opportunities. 
He'd have over 90 TDs on his career by extrapolating that to his healthy seasons.  (instead of 66) 
A common HOF RB that Fred is oft-compared to, Curtis Martin, has exactly 90 career TDs. 

6. Curtis Martin, by comparison, in his prime with the NYJ, had these greatly increased opportunities in the redzone:

1998:  66 att - other backs 15 att
1999: 52 att - other backs - 5 att
2000: 47 att - other backs - 10 att
2001: 51 att, other backs -  7 att
2002: 40 att, other backs 21
2003: 31 att, other backs 14
2004: 49 att, other backs 16

Martin definitely got more red zone opportunies.  I'm just doing the math in my head, but it looks like Martin produced about one TD for every 4 red zone touches.  While Fred produced about one for every 5. That's not a big enough difference to keep Fred out of the HoF, but it does explain why multiple coaches had Fred sharing red zone touches.

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