(07-02-2022, 09:10 AM)mikesez Wrote: (07-01-2022, 02:02 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: OK
I had 15 minutes to look this up for you. Lots to unpack here.
1. Red Zone opportunities are very relevant here. (red zone touches/attempts are really moreso what I'm referring to)
Backs with more touches in the RZ produce more TDs. Robbing a back of those opportunities keeps their TD numbers mitigated and leads to fans cobbling together ill informed opinions about the back's goal line prowess. For example, your own.
2. I've already noted the correction about the degree of Coughlin's involvement but I'll make it clear for you momentarily how it was indeed Tom Coughlin who began this "narrative" among fans and players that Taylor shouldn't be denied RZ touches.
3. This is important to understand:
From 1998-2007 (Fred's prime) there were only three seasons that Fred Taylor received the clear lion's share of red zone touches among the running backs on the roster.
Those seasons were 1998, 2000 and 2003
1n 1998 Fred had 45 touches in the red zone and that produced 11 RZ rushing TDS and 2 RZ receiving TDs. (13 of his 14 TDs that season came from these RZ touches)
In 2000 Fred had 55 RZ touches. Those touches produced 9 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. (11 of his 12 TDs that season.
You will notice that 1999 was skipped. There is good reason. 1999 was the year that Coughlin took away Fred's RZ touches and without question began the "narrative" that I have merely recalled here. Again - I'm not sure why you don't recall it as it was a popular debate at the time among fans and local media.
Coughlin gave Fred 29 RZ touches that year and gave 61 RZ touches to the other backs, primarily James Stewart. Fred only produced 6 TDs that season as a result.
4. This should be at least beginning to illustrate to you why red zone attempts/touches are important for analyzing Fred's career statistics - and it should be beginning to paint a picture of a negative trend that I will elaborate on further, statistically.
Here are the RZ rush attempts for Taylor and his RB teammates from 2002-2007 (2001 was an injury year) :
2002:
Fred - 35 attempts , Stacey Mack 28 attempts, QBs 9 att
2003:
Fred - 52 attempts , others 23 attempts, I won't bother with QB att each year - it ranges from 7-16 att every year
2004:
Fred - 29 att , other RBs 29 att
2005:
Fred - 26 - other RBs 38
2006:
Fred - 32 - other RBs - 39
2007:
Fred - 20 att - other RBs - 68
5. In the 3 seasons that Fred Taylor was trusted with the work load in the RZ, he averaged 10.6 TD per season. And most of them came from RZ opportunities.
He'd have over 90 TDs on his career by extrapolating that to his healthy seasons. (instead of 66)
A common HOF RB that Fred is oft-compared to, Curtis Martin, has exactly 90 career TDs.
6. Curtis Martin, by comparison, in his prime with the NYJ, had these greatly increased opportunities in the redzone:
1998: 66 att - other backs 15 att
1999: 52 att - other backs - 5 att
2000: 47 att - other backs - 10 att
2001: 51 att, other backs - 7 att
2002: 40 att, other backs 21
2003: 31 att, other backs 14
2004: 49 att, other backs 16
Martin definitely got more red zone opportunies. I'm just doing the math in my head, but it looks like Martin produced about one TD for every 4 red zone touches. While Fred produced about one for every 5. That's not a big enough difference to keep Fred out of the HoF, but it does explain why multiple coaches had Fred sharing red zone touches.
It's fair to say that Fred may not have been as efficient in the red zone as some other HOF backs in
one of his seasons with a good share of RZ carries.
2003.
What is even "more fair" to say based on the data is that he was denied touches in the red zone when compared to many HOF backs and because of that we won't ever have a clear picture of what he may have done with those opportunities.
The speculation that he was denied this opportunity because he was inefficient there is refuted by his average of 10.6 TDs over the 3 seasons coaches did give him most of the red zone carries. He got the job done when given the chance, except for that one season.
2003.
Del Rio must have looked at 2003 and seen a lack of efficiency in the red zone (6 TDs on 52 touches) and never considered 1998 or 2000 when Fred was an absolute beast in the red zone. He went forward keeping Fred's touches down from 2004 onward and that's a real shame for Fred's legacy numbers.
Of course once MJD arrived, any chance Fred had of using his last few years to get his TD numbers up was squashed.
It just made way too much sense to give carries to this young "bowling ball of butcher knives" at the goal line.
JDR tried giving Fred RZ touches in 2003 and he wasn't as efficient as he was in the '98 or '00 seasons prior when he had similar opportunity.
That one season of inefficiency likely sealed Fred's fate in terms of HOF TD statistics since he never again regained the opportunity to score inside the 20 most primary RBs of the era received.
