(07-02-2022, 08:41 AM)Predator Wrote: (07-01-2022, 02:02 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: OK
I had 15 minutes to look this up for you. Lots to unpack here.
1. Red Zone opportunities are very relevant here. (red zone touches/attempts are really moreso what I'm referring to)
Backs with more touches in the RZ produce more TDs. Robbing a back of those opportunities keeps their TD numbers mitigated and leads to fans cobbling together ill informed opinions about the back's goal line prowess. For example, your own.
2. I've already noted the correction about the degree of Coughlin's involvement but I'll make it clear for you momentarily how it was indeed Tom Coughlin who began this "narrative" among fans and players that Taylor shouldn't be denied RZ touches.
3. This is important to understand:
From 1998-2007 (Fred's prime) there were only three seasons that Fred Taylor received the clear lion's share of red zone touches among the running backs on the roster.
Those seasons were 1998, 2000 and 2003
1n 1998 Fred had 45 touches in the red zone and that produced 11 RZ rushing TDS and 2 RZ receiving TDs. (13 of his 14 TDs that season came from these RZ touches)
In 2000 Fred had 55 RZ touches. Those touches produced 9 rushing TDs and 2 receiving TDs. (11 of his 12 TDs that season.
You will notice that 1999 was skipped. There is good reason. 1999 was the year that Coughlin took away Fred's RZ touches and without question began the "narrative" that I have merely recalled here. Again - I'm not sure why you don't recall it as it was a popular debate at the time among fans and local media.
Coughlin gave Fred 29 RZ touches that year and gave 61 RZ touches to the other backs, primarily James Stewart. Fred only produced 6 TDs that season as a result.
4. This should be at least beginning to illustrate to you why red zone attempts/touches are important for analyzing Fred's career statistics - and it should be beginning to paint a picture of a negative trend that I will elaborate on further, statistically.
Here are the RZ rush attempts for Taylor and his RB teammates from 2002-2007 (2001 was an injury year) :
2002:
Fred - 35 attempts , Stacey Mack 28 attempts, QBs 9 att
2003:
Fred - 52 attempts , others 23 attempts, I won't bother with QB att each year - it ranges from 7-16 att every year
2004:
Fred - 29 att , other RBs 29 att
2005:
Fred - 26 - other RBs 38
2006:
Fred - 32 - other RBs - 39
2007:
Fred - 20 att - other RBs - 68
5. In the 3 seasons that Fred Taylor was trusted with the work load in the RZ, he averaged 10.6 TD per season. And most of them came from RZ opportunities.
He'd have over 90 TDs on his career by extrapolating that to his healthy seasons. (instead of 66)
A common HOF RB that Fred is oft-compared to, Curtis Martin, has exactly 90 career TDs.
6. Curtis Martin, by comparison, in his prime with the NYJ, had these greatly increased opportunities in the redzone:
1998: 66 att - other backs 15 att
1999: 52 att - other backs - 5 att
2000: 47 att - other backs - 10 att
2001: 51 att, other backs - 7 att
2002: 40 att, other backs 21
2003: 31 att, other backs 14
2004: 49 att, other backs 16
How did Coughlin start taking plays away from him in 1999? Fred was only active 10 games. 2 of those he was sidelined with injury before the 1st qtr even ended, in another he managed to get as far as to get 1 rush in the 2nd before he was done, and in another Fred was coming off a 3 week inactive streak and was the back up in that game and didn't see action until the 4th qtr. Fred never had more than 3 consecutive starts before being inactive that year. There was no debate about his touches. He was busy reinforcing the nickname "Fragile Freddie" on the sidelines.
In 2004 Fred was inactive 2 games and only got 2 carries before being injured in another. 6 of the other RB carries came on a single scoring drive. If you take away the anomaly of that single scoring drive, Fred was at about twice the red zone touches of all the rest of the RBs combined when healthy.
In 2005 Fred was inactive 6 games, injured and pulled in the 2nd qtr in one game then injured and pulled early in the 3rd in another.
The truth of the matter is that outside 2002 up until the arrival of MJD, Fred Taylor got the vast majority of red zone touches when he was healthy
You act like it was someone else's fault that other RB's got red zone touches. Fred couldn't stay on the field.
It's really funny that you use Curtis Martin as a comparison. You are comparing one of the most durable RB's in NFL history to one who's career was plagued by injuries.
You are demonstrating what being a healthy reliable RB does for your opportunities.
Outside of 2002, the only person who ever held Fred back was Fred.
Once again you have no idea what you are talking about.
Meh.
In 1999 - the lack of game action certainly affected the RZ carries. Takes some of the "blame" off Coughlin. I've already addressed that repeatedly anyway. He got the carries back in 2000 and delivered. You clearly and repeatedly stated he never delivered in RZ play - while the 1998 and 2000 seasons fly in the face of your repeated assertions of his goal line inabilities.
Your 2004 recollection is meaningless.He had 260 carries that season.
In 2005 he missed time but 2004-2007 all still serve to clearly demonstrate how his RZ attempts were limited and given to other backs.
2003 is literally the only season in which Fred was given the lion's share of RZ attempts and didn't produce.
He produced in 1998 with the RZ attempts.
He produced in 2000 with the RZ attempts.
2001 - injury year
2002 - split attempts with Mack - produced 5 RZ TDs and nearly doubled the yards per carry in the RZ that Mack had
2003 - He didn't produce as efficiently in 2003 with the RZ attempts and then he never saw them again.
