(07-08-2022, 12:47 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(07-08-2022, 12:23 PM)flsprtsgod Wrote: We don't have a worker shortage, we have an incentive to work shortage. We also have a mismatch between jobs available and available job skills and a mismatch between need and desire to work. Those things are resolved by putting people in the position where they have take available jobs and employers in the position where they have to pay for them.

This needs to be fleshed out more.  With emergency covid spending over, welfare hasn't changed much since 1997, except for medicaid and obamacare.  Is it just medicaid and Obama care that allow people to stay home? Or is something else going on?

I don't know how to explain that US states that had increases in population still had a decrease in labor force participation. I can see it happening in a place like Ft. Lauderdale where the incoming residents are retirees who don't move there and work, but no one moves to New York City to not work, so even with a decline in New York state you would think their labor force would remain constant or increase during the past 6 months. In one paper by the Federal Reserve of Kansas City they summarized it like this: 

Researchers have pointed to several contributing factors to subdued labor force participation. Briggs (2021) summarizes causes of the decrease in labor force participation such as childcare constraints, excess savings (short term), and shifted work preferences. Nie and Yang (2021) show that the increased share of retirees is not from the conventional employment-to-retirement channel but through a reduction in the flows from retirement to employment, likely due to pandemic-related health concerns. Tüzemen and Tran (2020) conclude that women were disproportionately affected by pandemic-related job losses, and Tüzemen (2021) finds that this loss was largest for women without a college degree, especially minority mothers.

Still much of that is related to the pandemic shut down but now I think we're past the post-pandemic reopening surge and immediate fears of recession are going to further depress employment as labor markets tighten. In any case I think Marty is incorrect that we need an influx of additional workers, especially low and unskilled ones.

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