(08-05-2022, 03:41 PM)mikesez Wrote: I've seen this mentioned elsewhere.
Ultimately, no one knows what the Chinese leadership is actually thinking, until they act.
I've also seen a claim that there is a common thread between Germany's decision to start WWI and Japan's decision to attack Pearl Harbor. In both cases, their power had been increasing relative to the rest of the world by simple economic and technological growth, but the leadership felt that they were going to stall out or decline if they didn't strike first and win. So that becomes very concerning as we see China's growth begin to stall for the first time in decades.
A war over Taiwan would be very, very ugly and very, very long. China would have to utterly control the strait and blockade the island, which they may be able to do, but only by sinking many ships. Then China would have to work on the transport ships necessary for the invasion, which will take years. Meanwhile, the US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all be doing their best to break the blockade, including perhaps airstrikes on the Chinese mainland. Which of course will be responded to with airstrikes on all of China's enemies around the Pacific. It would take some luck for all of that to not go nuclear.

Japan attacking the US doesn't match this situation. Japan invaded China and US and Russia were helping China. Then WW3 happens and US puts embargo on Japan for oil. That forced their hand but I don't think anyone thought they would be able to do what they did. Attacking the US was stupid but they really needed to get oil reserves.

If China attacks the US they would be bringing the US into war. They can take Taiwan without attacking another country. Bringing another country into it is stupid.

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