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China ‘convinced it needs to hit US with Pearl Harbor-style surprise attack’ to win
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I think what the original article is probably conflating a couple ideas. I think it would be an unmitigated disaster for China to attack the US first. However, it does make sense for China to understand that they have to take Taiwan before the US can get involved, purely from a strategic standpoint.
I just watched a video about Chinese tactics. They have been flying routes into Taiwan airspace up to a dozen times a day and with increasing frequency. They are not identifying themselves. Over time, they keep getting closer and closer to Taiwan. They are conditioning Taiwan to get used to unidentified planes coming from China, so they will stop putting their military on high alert every time this happens. When China feels like the conditions are right... they plan to unexpectedly overwhelm Taiwan with such a quickness that the US can't respond, which includes getting boots on the ground. If they can take it without it becoming a protracted war, I think they think the US will just cut its losses. If they can't successfully take Taiwan quickly, they know they will be fighting both Taiwan and, at the very least, the wealth and military equipment of the US. |
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