(09-21-2022, 09:55 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote:

(09-21-2022, 09:18 AM)mikesez Wrote: Right.  Carter's administration decided to play both sides for a time because they had already assessed that it was more likely than not that Khomeini would end up in a powerful position.  They were trying to salvage a bad situation.  Their naivete and ineptitude could be noted, but, regardless, the Shah's power was going to reduce and the Ayatollah's power was going to increase.

Nonsense, keeping the Shah was immaterial. Had the US simply supported the Iranian military then military would've replaced the Shah in a bloodless coup, Khomeini would've been arrested and most likely executed, and a local strongman in the Hussein model installed. Instead Carter Fubar'd the situation because his of his naivety and horrifically bad foreign policy positions and we ended up with the worst possible outcome.

In December of 1978, between 2 and 9 million Iranians participated in street protests.  These were probably the largest protests in history.  They demanded that the Ayatollah return to Iran and the Shah leave.  So any new Iranian government was going to let the Ayatollah return.
Once the Ayatollah returned, his plane was so surrounded by supporters that he had to leave the airport in a helicopter.  I don't think the military was ever going to go against that type of popular sentiment.  Certainly many wanted to.  But they never had the chance.  Too many on the other side.

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