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Well the new Floridan panic is full blown (merged)
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The following from the 26 September, 1700hr NHC discussion is what would concern me if I lived in the area of the west coast of FL. The rain dump from a slower track and high tide could bring some serious storm surge. When Florence was off the coast of NC for two days back in 2018 it dumped a boatload of water and backed up the rivers and creeks to create record breaking flood conditions on top of all the rain we already had that year. The damage it caused was substantial. Folks underestimate the damage of these types of storms.
Ian has made an expected turn toward the north-northwest, and its initial motion is 330/11 kt. The hurricane will move north-northwestward to northward over the next day or so as it is steered by a mid-level ridge to the east. A turn to the north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday and Thursday as the center of Ian moves near the west coast of Florida. The slower forward motion is likely to prolong the storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts, especially along the west coast of Florida. The latest track guidance has come into better agreement on this scenario, although it is noted that small deviations to the shore-parallel track could have large implications on the impacts at particular locations along the west coast of Florida. The NHC track forecast has again been adjusted slightly eastward at 48-72 h, which follows the latest trends in the global model guidance and lies near but just west of the multi-model consensus aids. |
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