(09-29-2022, 08:39 PM)NH3 Wrote:

(09-29-2022, 06:49 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I originally predicted 7 wins for this team.



After week 1, I remained with the 7 win prediction.  Despite losing, I felt like we looked like a 7-10 team.



After week 2, I was tempted to increase my prediction.  However, I hate reading too much into one win.  I stayed with my prediction, but felt much more confident that we would get at least 7 wins.



After week 3, I'm now starting to drink the kool aid.  One game is a fluke, but two fluke games?  Possible, but much less likely.  We didn't just win but won convincingly last week.  I'm increasing my prediction to 9 wins.  We have 14 games remaining.  We would need to go 7-7 in those games to get to 9.  When I look at our schedule, it seems reasonable:



Eagles - This is a tough game against the undefeated Eagles and the game will be played in Philadelphia.  However, it is just one game.  Even in this game, the Eagles are favored by less than a touchdown. 


Texans - They are 0-2-1 with one of their losses being to the Bears who I don't think are any good.  Their only non-loss was a tie against the Colts, the team we beat 24-0.

Colts - Yes, the next game will be on the road and they will likely have some players back from injury.  However, it is still largely the same team that we've already beaten 24-0.


Giants - I think they are improved compared to last year, but the Jaguars are more improved.  I don't think the Giants are a good team.

Broncos - Although 2-1, I think they are over-rated.  One of their wins was the Texans and the 49ers seemed to give their game to the Broncos.

Raiders - They are the only winless team in the NFL.  To be fair, they played those games close, so I think they are better than their record.  However, I still don't seem them as a particularly good team.

Chiefs - It's always tough to win in Kansas City, but I think the Chiefs have taken a step back this year.  They actually played the same teams as we did over the last two weeks.  The Chiefs beat the Chargers by only 3 points and they lost to the Colts.  Another way of looking at it is that the Chiefs' combined score was 44-44 in those two games while the Jaguars won 62-10.

Ravens - A very good team, but they are fallible at 2-1 and the game will be played in Jacksonville.

Lions - I think they are improved compared to last year, but the Jaguars are more improved.  I don't think the Lions are a good team.

Titans - I think they've taken a step back and have lost a couple of players to injury.  They lost at home to the Giants and got completely blown out by the Bills.  Their lone victory was against a winless team and that game came down to a missed 2 point conversion.

Cowboys - A good team, but also fallible at 2-1 and the game will be played in Jacksonville.

Jets - Not a good team.

Houston - See earlier.

Titans - See earlier.

Again, I'm not saying we are winning every one of those games, but 7-7 feels realistic.

My only issue w/your sentiments is that NFL Team's wins and loses are derived from an weekly basis. Whom may not be good today may be good weeks from now.

Time Will Tell.

NH3...

That's fair.  It is early and hard to know who will and will not be a good team this year.  

One thing I would add is that I think the Jaguars are a team that is likely to improve as the year progresses.  There is a lot of youth.  We have three rookies starting.  We also have three second year players (including a quarterback) starting.  This doesn't include ETN, who while not a starter, is a major role player.  He's in his second year, but missed all of last year with injury, so he's like a rookie as well.  We then have a bunch of players new to the team.  Everyone is also learning a new offensive/defense with a new coaching staff.  It feels like this team should be projecting upward.

My concern is the same as many others.  I don't think we have great depth.  Injuries could derail this team.  Injuries are hard to predict.

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