(11-29-2022, 11:24 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(11-29-2022, 01:19 AM)TheDuke007 Wrote: It's not even remotely "unrealistic" to predict that a rookie quarterback taken #1 overall would have fewer than 17 interceptions.

The two of you have raised a frequent topic of discussion, but with a surprising and fascinating twist.

To confirm/refute Duke's argument, I conducted research of every QB taken #1 overall (as opposed to the 1st QB taken in a draft) over the last forty (40) years to see how many INTs each QB threw in their rookie years.

At face value, Duke is right.  It's not necessarily unrealistic to expect a rookie QB taken #! overall to throw <17 INTs in their rookie years.

Here is a listing of the QBs taken first overall, games started, games played, TD passes, and the # of INTs they threw their rookie years.

1.  1983  John Elway, 11GP, 10 GS, 7TDs, 14 INTs.
2.  1984S Steve Young 5 GP, 5 GS, 3 TDs, 8 INTs.
3.  1987  Vinny Testaverde  6 GP, 4 GS, 5 TDs, 7 INTs
4.  1989 Troy Aikman 11 GP, 11 GS 9 TDs, 18 INTs
5.  1989(S) Steve Walsh 8 GP, 5 GS, 5 TDs, 9 INTs
6.1990 Jeff George 13 GP, 12 GS, 16 TDs, 13 INTs
7.  1993 Drew Bledsoe 13 GP, 12 GS, 15 TDs, 15 INTs
8.  1998 Peyton Manning  16 GP, 16 GS, 26 TDs, 28 INTs
9.  1999 Tim Couch  15 GP, 14 GS, 15 TDs, 13 INTs
10. 2001 Michael Vick  8 GP, 2 GS, 2 TDs, 3 INTs
11.  2002 David Carr  16 GP, 16 GS, 9TDs, 15 INTs
12.  2003 Carson Palmer  0 GP, 0 GS, 0 TDs, 0 INts (ist year starting was 2004 and he played and started 13threw 18 INTs and 18 INTs
13.  2004 Eli Manning 9 GP, 7 GS, 6 TDs, 9 INTs
14.  2005 Alex Smith  9 GP, 7 GS 1 TD, 11 INTs
15.  2007 Jamarcus Russell 4 GP, 1 GS 2 TDs, 4 INTs
16.  2009 Matthew Stafford 10 GP, 10 GS, 13 TDs, 20 INTs
17.  2010 Sam Bradford 16 GP, 16 GS, 18 TDs, 15 INTs
18.  2011 Cam Newton 16 GP, `16 GS, 21 TDs, 17 INTs
19.  2012 Andrew Luck 16 GP, 16 GS, 23 TDs, 18 INTs
20.  2015 Jameis Winston 16 GP, GS 16, 22 TDs, 15 TDs
21.  2016 Jared Goff  7 GP, 7 GS, 5 TDs, 7 INTs
22.  2018 Baker Mayfield 14 GP, 13 GS, 27 TDs, 14 INTs
23.  2019 Kyler Murray  16 GP, 14 GS, 20 TDs 12 INTs
24.  2020 Joe Burrow 10 GP. 10 GS, 13 TDs, 5 INTs
25.  2021 Trevor Lawrence 16 GP, 16 GS, 12 TDs, 17 INTs

Sources:  profootballreference.com
              drafthistory.com

Notes:  Two QBs in this list-Steve Young and Steve Walsh-were selected in the supplemental draft, which translated into the selecting team's first round pick the next year. 

Of the 25 players listed, SIX (6) threw 17 INTs or more in their rookie years:  Aikman, Manning, Luck, Cam Newton and Trevor Lawrence.  Aikman and Manning are first ballot Hall of famers. having won multiple Super Bowls.  Luck made multiple Pro Bowls. Matt Stafford has made Multiple Pro Bowls and won his first Super Bowl this last season. Cam Newton made a Super Bowl and several Pro Bowls.  Though it's early, Trevor Lawrence is on a pace to be a top statistical QB this year.

Those from the list throwing less than 17 INTs their rookie seasons had vaarious reasons for the lack of INTs.  There were many who had a relatively small number of starts.  Testaverde only threw 7 INTs his rookie year, but threw a prolific number of INTs over the course of his career.  His critics called him "Interceptaverde."  He had a total of 4 starts.  Jamarcus Russell started a whopping one (1) game his rookie year, which accounts for his 4 INTs.  There are others below 17 INTs their rookie year who, in NFL terms, were less than successful.  The counterintuitive conclusion is there seems no correlation between the lack of INTs thrown by rookie #1 overall QB picks and their success.

First, welcome back to the board!  You were definitely missed!  I was concerned that your absence might have been due to health issues.  I hope that wasn't the case.  

Second, thanks for the research.  Your stats proved that I was right.  It's not "the classic definition of unrealistic expectation" to have believed prior to Lawrence's playing his first game that he might fare slightly better than 12 TD's and 17 interceptions in his rookie season.  That's hardly a controversial statement.  I found it very surprising that any Trevor supporter would criticize my message as it was extremely positive and complimentary of Trevor Lawrence.  I said that I was proud to have always believed in him when many others doubted him.  I always thought his shortcomings were things that could improve with experience.  I stated that I hated when some people tried to compare Trevor to unsuccessful quarterbacks such as Gabbert as I believed Lawrence was far more talented and would ultimately succeed where Gabbert and others failed.  I even acknowledged that Trevor's first year was hampered by poor coaching and lack of surrounding talent.  It's almost hard to give a more glowing review of a player.

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