Start off with the division as that is the easiest way to make it.  Doesn't look like there is any scenario where we can win the division without beating the Titans the last week of the year as they'd beat us on the division tiebreaker.  Which means if we go into the final week of the season either one game behind, tied, or one game ahead of the Titans it doesnt matter.  We'll have to win that game regardless.  So with that game being a given, it really just comes down to what happens over the next two weeks.  At a minimum we need to stay one game behind going into the last week of the year.  Week 16 we play at the Jets (thurs) and Titans are home against the Texans.  Week 17 we are at the Texans and Titans are home against the Cowboys (thurs).

Worst case in week 16 - we lose to the Jets and they beat the Texans.  Puts us two down with two to play.  So in week 17 we'd have to beat the Texans and they'd have to lose to the Cowboys to put us back to being one game back.  Not a great spot but both outcomes are very plausible.  Texans seem to be playing tougher of late but if the Titans were to have just beaten them than we can too.  And Cowboys are much better than the Titans so that seems pretty realistic as well.  There is a slim chance the Cowboys will be locked into the 5 seed with nothing to play for before week 17 begins but that is unlikely.

Neutral case in week 16 - Jags and Titans both lose or both win.  Remain one game back but now with two to play.  In week 17 if they beat the Cowboys we'd have to beat the Texans to stay one game behind.  But if they lose to the Cowboys, our game against the Texans becomes meaningless.  And with the Cowboys and Titans playing on thursday, we'd know exactly what was needed by the time we play Houston.

Best case in week 16 - Jags win and Titans lose.  We are now tied with two games to go.  Interestingly, this makes both of our week 17 games meaningless (at least for the division race).  Again doesnt do us any good being up one game going into the season finale.  If we lost to the Titans and finish with same record we lose the tiebreaker.  So if we go into week 17 tied up, it doesnt matter if we come out of week 17 up one, tied, or down one.  We still have to beat the Titans in week 18.  So those week 17 games are meaningless in this scenario.  

As far as the wild card, very slim chance we could make it in that slot.  First, if we go 9-8 we are winning the division.  So the wild card is only an option for us if we go 8-9 and don't win the division.  Currently the Chargers and Dolphins are sitting in the last two wild card spots at 8-6.  So one of those two would have to go winless the rest of the way.  Chargers playing Colts, Rams, and Broncos.  Dolphins playing Packers, Patriots, and Jets.  Cant see either going winless but if I had to pick one I think the Dolphins have the harder schedule.  All of those teams still playing for something.  We'd also have to jump the Patriots and Jets who are 7-7.  And then there are a bunch of other teams at 6-8 who may also finish 8-9.  You can draw up a number of scenarios where we'd get in at 8-9 but they all seem pretty unlikely.  Much easier to just take care of business in the division.

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