(12-31-2022, 04:49 PM)jaglou53 Wrote:

(12-31-2022, 02:41 PM)Bullseye Wrote: Let me assure you I don't believe you have derailed/hijacked the thread.  I think there is a definite link between building a championship team and sustaining that success once built.  But that subtle shift raises issues in my mind that, while related to the topics at hand, could, at least serve as something of a buzz kill.  Given how the fan base is feeling optimistic about the team for the first time in ages, I don't raise these issues/concerns lightly.

With that said, I would caution those who want to continue to feel good about the future prospects for this team and continue to bask in the current glow to avoid this post.  This post will be on the longer side, so if you are averse to my "novels" to avoid it.

These caveats aside, I would submit another key to sustaining the success initiated by the HC/QB combo is sustaining the level of talent needed to achieve the success.  Back in 2020  I posted this thread on the board detailing the roster purge of our last playoff team and the effects of that purge.  Here is that post.  https://www.duvalpride.com/showthread.ph...+of+Terror

Like the 2017 team's ascent to contention and descent to liquidation, free agency played a large role- perhaps an outsized role, in the possible ascent of this team.  This year, we've added the following veterans:

WR Christian Kirk
WR Zay Jones
WR Calvin Ridley (trade)
TE Evan Engram
G Brandon Scherff
DT Foley Fatukasi
LB Oluakon
SS Rayshawn Jenkins
CB Darious Williams

That's at least 9 starters/major contributors whose contracts will have expired by Trevor Lawrence's 5th year, or will be in their 30s by then.  This doesn't factor in other possible free agent departures, retirements, and other needed replacements/upgrades.  If we win a Super Bowl with this nucleus, while some free agents may be more willing to sign with us at a lower price, it'll be harder to do as heavily with Trevor Lawrence's new deal. We'll need cheaper players.

That will mean rookies with rookie contracts.

If we draft as poorly as we did between 2019 and 2020...if 2023, 2024 and 2025 don't adequately upgrade and replenish the talent we'll be in also ran status even with Trevor Lawrence firmly established as a lifelong Jaguar on a Hall of Fame trajectory.  We'd end up with our window of success prematurely shut.  It would represent a betrayal of Trevor Lawrence, Doug Pederson, the fans, and everyone on the team committed to winning.  Starting this next draft, the draft will have increasing importance even though we found the QB.  We have to hit on those picks.  We ca'nt deplete the talent on the roster as we did between 2019 and 2020.

You are correct that the Jaguars must draft well going forward in order to maintain their success. Pederson and Lawrence would be the first to say that it takes more than a great quarterback and coach to maintain success in the NFL. The Jaguars overall performance in the draft since their playoff win against the Steelers in 2008 until Baalke became GM in 2020 was historically awful. Of the 14 number 1 draft picks during this period, it is not farfetched to say that 10 were busts! The abysmal ten are bookended by Derrick Harvey in 2008 and the dynamic duo of Henderson and Chaisson in 2020. Sandwiched in between were Gabbert, Blackmon, Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, Fournette and Bryan. One may quibble over Bortles and Fowler being on this list, but both were very bad picks. Fournette is included despite being mediocre considering they could have taken Mahomes or McCaffrey. Josh Allen, Alualu, and Eugene Monroe were the best picks and one could say that all 3 were disappointments despite having their moments. I'm not including Ramsay (most hated Jaguar ever) because he turned out to be such a negative influence on the team.

It is way too early to judge Baalke's draft choices in his two seasons as GM. He deserves zero credit for Lawrence since there has never been an easier pick. I believe that Walker, Lloyd, Cisco, Etienne and Campbell have the potential to be very good, although Campbell is the only one who has played at a consistently high level. If Walker Little is able to be a consistent starting tackle and Fortner continues to develop Baalke's two year grade will be a solid B, at the worst. He certainly has his issues, but so far he has been far superior to Shack Harris, Gene Smith and Dave Caldwell. He owes them a debt of gratitude for setting the bar so low!

Let's enjoy the likely success this team should have over the next 3 seasons and hope that Baalke continues what appears to be a successful two years of drafts!

While I will nt get into the comparison between Jaguars' GMs, I agree with the analysis that it's too early to gauge how well Baalke has done, though you could argue that simply by virtue of drafting Trevor Lawrence, he's already a success.  But, since this team is a year removed from a league wrst 3-14 record, and two removed from 1-15. the presumption this is not a complete team from a talent standpoint seems safe.

That said, based on where we are right now, and assuming we win the last two games of the regular season and ultimately the division, how many new starters do  we need going into the next season to be a Super Bowl team?  Based on what has been discussed in this thread, OL (2-RT to perhaps replace Jawaan Taylor-depending on how the team feels about Walker Little- and an upgrade at LG), Edge rusher and CB 1-2) are safe assumptions.  So maybe 3-5 quality starters to upgrade the positions listed?  f we aree unable to retain Engram, that's another.  How likely is that, especially given our lower draft position?  Baalke and company are going to have to hit big on some mid round draft picks to reach that 3-5 quality starters level.  That doesn't even get into depth.

How likely is it to expect that much positive impact in one draft?

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