(01-01-2023, 10:15 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(12-31-2022, 04:49 PM)jaglou53 Wrote: You are correct that the Jaguars must draft well going forward in order to maintain their success. Pederson and Lawrence would be the first to say that it takes more than a great quarterback and coach to maintain success in the NFL. The Jaguars overall performance in the draft since their playoff win against the Steelers in 2008 until Baalke became GM in 2020 was historically awful. Of the 14 number 1 draft picks during this period, it is not farfetched to say that 10 were busts! The abysmal ten are bookended by Derrick Harvey in 2008 and the dynamic duo of Henderson and Chaisson in 2020. Sandwiched in between were Gabbert, Blackmon, Joeckel, Bortles, Fowler, Fournette and Bryan. One may quibble over Bortles and Fowler being on this list, but both were very bad picks. Fournette is included despite being mediocre considering they could have taken Mahomes or McCaffrey. Josh Allen, Alualu, and Eugene Monroe were the best picks and one could say that all 3 were disappointments despite having their moments. I'm not including Ramsay (most hated Jaguar ever) because he turned out to be such a negative influence on the team.

It is way too early to judge Baalke's draft choices in his two seasons as GM. He deserves zero credit for Lawrence since there has never been an easier pick. I believe that Walker, Lloyd, Cisco, Etienne and Campbell have the potential to be very good, although Campbell is the only one who has played at a consistently high level. If Walker Little is able to be a consistent starting tackle and Fortner continues to develop Baalke's two year grade will be a solid B, at the worst. He certainly has his issues, but so far he has been far superior to Shack Harris, Gene Smith and Dave Caldwell. He owes them a debt of gratitude for setting the bar so low!

Let's enjoy the likely success this team should have over the next 3 seasons and hope that Baalke continues what appears to be a successful two years of drafts!

While I will nt get into the comparison between Jaguars' GMs, I agree with the analysis that it's too early to gauge how well Baalke has done, though you could argue that simply by virtue of drafting Trevor Lawrence, he's already a success.  But, since this team is a year removed from a league wrst 3-14 record, and two removed from 1-15. the presumption this is not a complete team from a talent standpoint seems safe.

That said, based on where we are right now, and assuming we win the last two games of the regular season and ultimately the division, how many new starters do  we need going into the next season to be a Super Bowl team?  Based on what has been discussed in this thread, OL (2-RT to perhaps replace Jawaan Taylor-depending on how the team feels about Walker Little- and an upgrade at LG), Edge rusher and CB 1-2) are safe assumptions.  So maybe 3-5 quality starters to upgrade the positions listed?  f we aree unable to retain Engram, that's another.  How likely is that, especially given our lower draft position?  Baalke and company are going to have to hit big on some mid round draft picks to reach that 3-5 quality starters level.  That doesn't even get into depth.

How likely is it to expect that much positive impact in one draft?

Before answering your question regarding new starters, I will make the following assumptions:

1. Darious Williams is kept at the 2nd corner position where he has played well as of late. He was very solid with the Rams ranking 4th in 2020 for cornerbacks according to PFF.

2. Evan Engram is re-signed during the off-season being rewarded with a multi-year deal. 

3. Walker Little is promoted to starting right tackle and will prove to be worth the 2nd round pick the Jaguars used to get him.

4. Devin Lloyd plays consistently at the level he demonstrated early this season at linebacker.


Based on these 4 positions being secure, these are the new starting positions needed for 2023:

1. Right tackle: Walker Little moves into this spot. No need to draft a starter at this position.

2. Edge rusher: Caldwell moves Trevon Walker to his more natural position on the defensive line. Chaisson is cut in the off-season. An Edge should be drafted in rounds 1 or 2 to fill this spot assuming the team remains utilizing a 3-4 as it's primary defense. The team is fortunate that there will be at least a couple of excellent options when they pick somewhere in the 20's including Jared Verse and B.J. Ojulari.

3. Left guard: Ben Bartch has yet to show he can be a reliable starter so an upgrade is necessary. A solid replacement can be found in rounds 2 or 3 of the 2023 draft. Andrew Vorhees from USC would be a great pick since he has also played some tackle and is very experienced. If he is gone, Cooper Beebe or Jarrett Patterson would be potential selections in rounds 2 or 3.

4. Nickel-back: There is a deep group of corners/nickels in this draft and an immediate starter can be found in rounds 2 or 3. Ideally, rounds 2 and 3 would be used to take guard and nickel with the best value player given priority in round 2.


These are the 4 positions requiring new starters and it is very possible it can be achieved through the 2023 draft, as indicated above. The defensive line needs to be strengthened to some degree since Smoot, Key and possibly Robertson-Harris will be gone. Ideally, they get Robertson-Harris to sign a "reasonable" deal since he has performed well as a Jaguar. If they can't afford to do this, they will likely need to add at least one rotational player on the line to support Fatukasi, Walker and Hamilton. 

If all of this can be achieved for 2023, could the Jaguars contend for the Super Bowl? That will depend on Lawrence's continued growth and the uncertainty of injuries. However, who would have predicted this team would have a better than average chance of making the 2022-23 playoffs following a combined 4 wins in 2020 and 2021? When you have an elite quarterback and the perfect guy to coach him, winning division titles and contending for Super Bowls is not an unrealistic expectation to have.

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