(04-06-2023, 09:03 PM)mikesez Wrote: I'm sure that Bud Light sales are going to go down, but 80% in a matter of days? No. No one in brick and mortar retail has anywhere near that quality of data to see an effect that quickly.

Days? No but weeks. Unless you are getting tons of deliveries, it will take a week or 2 for most orders to be canceled or no new orders to be placed.

Supply chains are a lot more advanced than you think. Depending on contracts, retail stores may have to supply sales data in real-time. It's not going to be the case for Bud because of the many smaller businesses but the larger retailers are most likely sending them data. The smaller retailers will call their sales reps or 3rd party suppliers to cancel and that will be sent back to corporate but delayed.

The data is generally there but they may not make any adjustments to the manufacturing and stay on forecast. I don't know how far in advance Bud is purchasing raw materials but they are probably close to 4 quarters out to ensure they have what they need.


So if they can't adjust materials orders, they may not even react to this. If it lasts longer than 1 month, they will need to adjust forecasts and models to cut orders and supplies. That does take time though.

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