(06-15-2023, 12:15 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Inventories are a little less than a quarter of what they were in 2008.  That’s the biggest reason why this correction expected by the masses may not happen.  Rate increases will have an effect on demand as well, but rates are still relatively low historically speaking.  Whatever correction you are expecting is probably going to be much smaller in reality than you think.

Prudent decision making with your finances is always a good idea, but if you need to buy or move for some reason, the current set of circumstances shouldn’t be as concerning to you as those that were present in 2008.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out.  I’m (probably) in my forever home, so it doesn’t affect me much, but if a big correction does happen I’ll probably start looking at scooping up some investment properties.

I'm leaning this way.

I see a correction coming in roughly the next three years, but I don't think it will be drastic like 2007/8.

I think we may see home values that rose 25%-30% over that 18-24 month stretch of rapid inflation settle back down a little bit  - or stagnate long enough for consumers to gain some ground. 

I actually have a 24 month plan in place for a home purchase in Duval County and I'm preparing two contingencies based on whether the market corrects or not.

---

(06-16-2023, 07:15 AM)homebiscuit Wrote:

(06-16-2023, 06:50 AM)flsprtsgod Wrote: Layoffs and restructuring is just beginning. Most companies are running budget deficits this year and unlike the federal government they don't have the ability to print their own money. Consumer debt already skyrocketed and with student loans restarimg another hit to income is going to cut the customer demand even more. That means those higher interest rate mortgages are going to climb further and further out of reach for people who should be buying starter or second homes. There are a bunch of danger signs around and something bad has to happen to fix these problems.

I have no doubts a correction is pending. However, I don’t see the shock of 2008. It was obvious to the most casual observer then that the system was upside down. I remember having conversations with my coworkers about how people were buying houses who were clearly not qualified. I saw it all through my neighborhood. Those signs aren’t as abundant now.

Yes, this period of property value inflation is much different than that insane surge of lenders doling out backloaded mortgage deals to anyone who'd sign up for one. 

We won't see that tsunami of foreclosures. Maybe a wave, but not one of epic proportion.

---