(06-24-2023, 09:18 AM)Bullseye Wrote:

(06-24-2023, 06:55 AM)Caldrac Wrote: Going back to that guys point in that 2nd video about divisional games. How often does a top team within their division actually sweep their divisional opponents? It's very rare. The Chiefs pulled it off last year. The 49ers pulled it off as well. 

I am sure the Patriots probably did it a few times with Belichick and Brady but they even had some clunkers with the Jets and Dolphins from time to time. But, you cannot go into every year thinking you're going to win 5 games or sweep all of your divisional opponents. It's just not common. 

Bengals lost to Pittsburgh, Baltimore & Cleveland last year. Going 3 - 3 and winning their division.
Buffalo lost to Miami & New York last year. Going 4 - 2 and winning their division. 

Looking at us historically. I think any of the road games are 50/50. Regardless of their QB situations. I think historically we have the clots number here at home. I think the tacks are 50/50 here at home. The tinhorns still give us fits. So, there's something to be said to that. I think we'll look back at the divisional road games and the Saints, Steelers and Browns games where it'll be the difference between us entering the play-off's with guns blazing or limping in barely after a lot of games came down to the 12th round in a slugfest. 

This could be a team that really scratches heads and pisses us off as a fanbase this year. You watch. They'll pull some goofy [BLEEP], where, they'll probably upset the Chiefs early at home and curbstomp the Bills in London early, only, they'll turn around later and lay eggs on nationally televised games against the Ravens and Bengals. They'll probably lose in OT to the Saints and then pistol whip the 49ers. They'll probably go 3 - 3 in the division and we might barely win the division.

It'll be exciting nonetheless.

Not that this team is a juggernaut, but how often does a team face every divisional opponent and those divisional opponents are starting rookie QBs?

In all my years of watching football, I've never seen that situation.

The closest I have seen that happen was the 1983 draft.

Five of the six first round QBs taken in that historic draft were taken by AFC East teams.

Baltimore took John Elway
Buffahole took Jim Kelly
New England took Tony Eason
NY Jets took Ken O'Brien
Miami took Dan Marino

There were some notable developments in that draft that differentiates that draft from this one.

1.  Elway never played a down for Baltimore.  He hated Irsay, to the point Elway threatened to play baseball if the Colts retained his rights.  The Colts relented and traded Elway to the Broncos.

2.  Jim Kelly wound up being Buffalo's best ever QB. but did not play for the Bills for two seasons.  Kelly was also drafted that same year by the USFL's Houston Gamblers.  Kelly didn't want to play in Buffalo initially.  The USFL won but lost the antitrust litigation against the NFL.  The jury found the NFL violated antitrust law, but theUSFL was responsible for their own downfall.  The jury awarded the USFL $1 (that'ss NOT a typo) and under treble damages it was tripled, for a judgment of $.  Afterwards the USFL ceased operations and Kelly went to Buffahole.

3.  New England had an established starting QB already in Steve Grogan.

4.  The Jets reached the AFC championship the year before, but lost to Miami.

5.  Miami was fresh off a Super Bowl appearance-a 27-17 loss to Washington in Super Bowl XVII.  Marino did not start the year.  David Woodley, who was QB on that Super Bowl team was the starter.  Marino took over circa week 6 and was one of the few rookie QBs to be successful right out of the box.  The fact he went to a team with an established Super Bowl champion coach in Don freaking Shula on a Super Bowl caliber team speaks volumes.

So of the five first round QBs taken by that division, one never played a down for the team that drafted him (Elway), one didn't play for the team that drafted him for another two years (Kelly), one went to a team with an established and still viable starting QB in Grogan, and two went to teams that made it at least to the AFC title game the year before.

In the AFC South, CJ Stroud went to the Texans second overall.  Elway was considered the greatest prospect of all time when he was drafted.  Stroud was not.  Richardson went 4th overall, and unlike Kelly, who had multiple years as a collegiate starting QB and two more seasons as a starter in the USFL before joining the Bills, Richardson was a college starter for only one year before joining the Colts.  WHile he's phsycally gifted, he'll need a lot more seasoning and experience to hope to be anywhere near as great as Kelly was.  Levis doesn't appear to start immediately for the tacks.  He wasn't even drafted in the first round, and he has an established starter in front of him.  Of the three rookie QBs, two of them are going to defensive head coaches (Vrabel in Tenn and Ryans in Houston).  While there have been any number of QBs who were drafted by teams with defensive coaches who went on to have great careers, more often it takes an offensive coach to properly develop young QBs.

Bottom line:  the QB dynamic in this division strongly favors the Jaguars-at least for this year.

---