(10-30-2023, 06:22 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(10-29-2023, 11:20 PM)NYC4jags Wrote: To fans - there may be no standardized accepted chart - but the league and front offices have been nerding out on this stuff for many years and much data has been collected. While limiting the amount of early round picks spent on RBs is a very wise move depending on roster development stage IMO - I realize that the odds of landing an elite level player after the 2nd round decrease of course. (for every position) 

Nonetheless - there is indeed an accepted hierarchy of positional value to NFL front offices. Even if managers may disagree on the finer points from one to the next.  

I like the methodology of getting your team set at QB, in the trenches, at least one upper tier secondary spot, and at at least two other skill positions before moving to spend a 1st or 2nd on a RB. Until such a time I'd spend 3rd rounders or less repeatedly until a capable backfield is filled out. 

Positional value chart:

https://overthecap.com/positional-value-in-the-nfl

Draft value and correlation to positional tiers:

https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/...lue-curves

For every fortunate ETN selection there is an existing possibility of a Leonard Fournette selection that sets your team back years in roster development. I prefer to take such a gamble on positions of an accepted greater positional value BEFORE taking that risk at RB.

There's the position, then there's the actual player.  What position does he play is one factor, but the other factor is the talent level.  In this case, the talent level trumped the position.  I'm sure you agree with all that.

Sure. 

You've seen me use the terms "gamble, crapshoot, risk, etc" over and over again in these RB value debates. 

They pay an entire scouting dept. and a number of execs big bucks to determine which of those early round RBs are that rare talent that trumps the lopsided positional valuation of selecting a RB early. 

And they still get it wrong half of the time. Because that's the nature of the draft. I don't like rolling the dice like that on backs until other spots I've already outlined are secured. 

The Jaguars literally chose Leonard Fournette over McCaffery. 
 Just because you are bold enough to take a highly touted back early - you aren't guaranteed to totally screw yourself and your franchise. 

I love ETN. So glad he's a Jag. 
But if he'd turned out to be like Najee Harris it would be a real shame to our roster development and that could easily have happened.

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