(11-11-2023, 12:23 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(11-11-2023, 12:17 PM)TheDogCatcher Wrote: Nice breakdown, but imagine you're Khan. How do you respond to this offer?


Jeff Lurie: "Shad, fans are attributing our team's success over the years to Howie, not me. From one big ego exec to another, I think you can understand that simply can't fly."

Shad: "Well, cry me a river. The fans blamed me for the Urban Meyer debacle. I'll gladly clap in the background while Dougie P. hoists the Lombardi and then does a victory lap in the media bashing his time in Philly."

Lurie: "OK, Mr. Wise Guy. Let's cut to the chase: How about you send me a Firehouse sub with all the fixings and Baalke in exchange for a Philly cheese steak and Howie? I'm getting ready to promote Dave Caldwell. I think he's learned from his mistakes down there. He raved about Trent's coffee fetching skills. Whaddya say buddy?"

I don't know what to say to that. 
I wasn't trying to say Baalke is going to have the same success as Roseman. 
And teams don't trade GMs of course. 

I just think that we fans tend to put lots of weight on GM's bad moves (that we judge prematurely) and place very little weight on their successful moves, unless they happen to be making those successful ones for someone else. It's a classic "grass is always greener" dynamic in my opinion. 

GMs and OCs are our easiest scapegoats to rail against as modern NFL fans.

I'll feel more comfortable passing judgement on Baalke's overall work in Jax when the dust has settled on more of his acquisitions.

Agreed. 

As a reference let's first look at historical success.
1st Round -  OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%)  DB (64%)  QB (63%)  WR (58%)  DL (58%)  RB (58%)
2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%)  DB (46%)  QB (27%)  WR (49%)  DL (26%)  RB (25%)
3rd Round - OL (40%)  LB (34%) TE (39%)  DB (24%)  QB (17%)  WR (25%)  DL (27%)  RB (16%)
4th Round - OL (29%)  LB (16%) TE (33%)  DB (11%)  QB (8%)    WR(12%)    DL (37%)    RB (11%)
5th Round - OL (16%)  LB (4%)  TE (32%)  DB (17%)  QB (0%)    WR (16%)    DL (13%)  RB (9%) 
6th Round - OL (16%)  LB (5%)  TE (26%)  DB (8%)    QB (0%)    WR (9%)      DL (13%)    RB (6%)
7th Round - OL (9%)    LB (2%)  TE (0%)    DB (11%)  QB (6%)    WR (5%)      DL (3%)      RB (0%)

The odds are very long past the 4th round for most position groups. (except TE)  So all the peeps griping about not hitting a lot in the later rounds, I suspect you are relying heavily on your vast powers of Monday morning Qb'ing.

FOR FUN (if I can use that phase)  I compared Howie to Baalkies draft classes the last 3 years.  I compared are the picks on the 2023 53 man roster as a determining factor.

2021 - both are the same 6 of 9 or 67%
2022 - Howie was 3 for 5 or 60% (note only rounds 1,2 and 3 are on the roster the 2 6ths are not)
        - Baalkie was 5 for 6 (rounds 1,2, 3 are on the roster and one 6, one 7)

This gives Howie  a hit rate of 64% for those 2 years while Baalkie had a hit rate of 73%

2023 - Howie was 6 for 7 or 86%
        - Baalkie was 9 for 13 or 69%

For 3 years - Howie 71%
                 - Baalkie 71%
     
Bottom line the Jaguar drafting TEAM is doing a decent job of providing Doug with players. (opinion)

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