(11-11-2023, 10:16 AM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(11-10-2023, 02:14 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote: I don't particularly like the term "screwed up".  I do think there's a number of picks where a different GM would have gone in a different direction which likely would have generated more benefit to the team.

I don't think Baalke has done a good job on Day Three of the draft.  In 2021, he had 4 draft picks on Day Three.  3 of the 4 are no longer on the team and the one exception is a tight end with 131 career receiving yards over the course of 2.5 seasons.  In 2022, 1 of the 3 picks is no longer on the 53 man roster.  Another one was cut from the 53 man roster during his rookie year.  Although he made the team this year, it still meant that after his rookie preseason, 31 other teams could have obtained his services for the league minimum salary and didn't want him.  It also means we could have likely had him for free if we didn't draft him.  As for 2023, again, I admit it's early, but if we're giving early grades, it's not particularly good.  We took 7 defensive players.  If I've done my math correctly, they've combined on defense for 4 combined tackles, 2 QB pressures, 1 pass defensed and 1 interception with the interception being a hail mary as time expired in garbage time with the game already won by the Jags.  Again, that's combined for 7 players through 8 games.   We also took a wide receiver with only a 5 yard punt return to his credit, an offensive lineman who hasn't played and a fullback/tight end who is no longer in the league.  I know there's been some injuries, but that's a lot of picks to generate virtually no production.  

As for recent early picks that have been questionable:

Travon Walker (#1 Overall Pick) - He's not bad, but has he played at the level of a #1 overall pick?

Luke Fortner (Top Pick in the Third Round) - He's starting but has a PFF grade this year of 47.2.

Chad Muma (Very Early in Third Round) - He only played 26% of defensive snaps in his rookie season and only 24% this year.  He has a PFF grade this year of 35.7.  

Brenton Strange (Second Round) - He has only played 34% of the offensive snaps.  His PFF grade is 46.5.

Tank Bigsby (Third Round) - He has only played 16% of the offensive snaps.  His PFF grade is 46.2.

Don't get me wrong.  I'm not advocating cutting any of this players.  Hopefully, they turn it around and turn into great players.  However, if given a choice right now, yes, I would exchange them for other players available at the spots they were drafted.  I do think there's big question marks on these players.

Cool. 

I don't disagree with any of that. Thanks for hashing it out for me.

I think that most of these issues (and types of picks)  are fairly common amongst GMs across the league but it is fair to be honest about how they are working out so far. 

The Muma 2023 grade is a bit misleading due to such limited play - but the number of linebackers on the roster( or IR) that don't see the field is an element of Baalke's build that I disapprove of. He has a 70th overall pick and a 121st overall pick tied up in guys to back up Lloyd and Oluokun. That's an odd use of solid draft capital. 
  
Aside from that ^ and not effectively addressing the IOL I feel like he's done well for us so far. 

If some of these picks you listed don't develop, my opinion will shift to one less favorable.

It sounds like we are largely on the same page.  

Let me state a couple of aspects of my draft philosophy.  I'm big on what a draft pick does during his first four years (five for first rounders) as that is the time that you have them under their rookie contract.  You want to get productions while they are inexpensive.  Although you might get a slight hometown discount, for the most part, when you resign a draft pick to a second contract, you are paying him free agent market value money.

I'm also big on playing time.  A team wins games when our 11 players on the field are better than their 11 players on the field.  If a player isn't on the field, he isn't contributing towards that goal.  Let me put it another way.  If Player A plays twice as much as Player B, then Player B must have twice the impact during every snap in order to generate the same benefit.  That's a really big ask for Player B and one that isn't going to work out very often.

Even if Muma, Strange and Bigsby improve, they are still unlikely to play more than 50% of the snaps until maybe their fourth year given other players on our roster at their positions.  There were other draft picks available that would have started in year 1 or at least year 2 and would have helped us win more games.

In regard to Fortner, center was a need.  However, the value was questionable.  Most mock drafters at the time saw him as a reach.  We don't know what other GM's thought.  Maybe they liked him too.  However, maybe they thought Baalke was an idiot.  Either way, Baalke takes responsibility for the bad pick if Fortner doesn't improve dramatically.

As for Walker, again, we don't know what other GM's thought, but my suspicion is that most wouldn't have gambled the first overall pick on a project.

This team won't be able to retain its high priced free agents forever.  We're going to need find quality replacements in the draft if we want to continue to be successful long term.  I'm not bashing Baalke, but I'm not exactly full of confidence either.

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