(11-12-2023, 07:39 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:

(11-11-2023, 10:16 AM)NYC4jags Wrote: Cool. 

I don't disagree with any of that. Thanks for hashing it out for me.

I think that most of these issues (and types of picks)  are fairly common amongst GMs across the league but it is fair to be honest about how they are working out so far. 

The Muma 2023 grade is a bit misleading due to such limited play - but the number of linebackers on the roster( or IR) that don't see the field is an element of Baalke's build that I disapprove of. He has a 70th overall pick and a 121st overall pick tied up in guys to back up Lloyd and Oluokun. That's an odd use of solid draft capital. 
  
Aside from that ^ and not effectively addressing the IOL I feel like he's done well for us so far. 

If some of these picks you listed don't develop, my opinion will shift to one less favorable.

It sounds like we are largely on the same page.  

Let me state a couple of aspects of my draft philosophy.  I'm big on what a draft pick does during his first four years (five for first rounders) as that is the time that you have them under their rookie contract.  You want to get productions while they are inexpensive.  Although you might get a slight hometown discount, for the most part, when you resign a draft pick to a second contract, you are paying him free agent market value money.

I'm also big on playing time.  A team wins games when our 11 players on the field are better than their 11 players on the field.  If a player isn't on the field, he isn't contributing towards that goal.  Let me put it another way.  If Player A plays twice as much as Player B, then Player B must have twice the impact during every snap in order to generate the same benefit.  That's a really big ask for Player B and one that isn't going to work out very often.

Even if Muma, Strange and Bigsby improve, they are still unlikely to play more than 50% of the snaps until maybe their fourth year given other players on our roster at their positions.  There were other draft picks available that would have started in year 1 or at least year 2 and would have helped us win more games.

In regard to Fortner, center was a need.  However, the value was questionable.  Most mock drafters at the time saw him as a reach.  We don't know what other GM's thought.  Maybe they liked him too.  However, maybe they thought Baalke was an idiot.  Either way, Baalke takes responsibility for the bad pick if Fortner doesn't improve dramatically.

As for Walker, again, we don't know what other GM's thought, but my suspicion is that most wouldn't have gambled the first overall pick on a project.

This team won't be able to retain its high priced free agents forever.  We're going to need find quality replacements in the draft if we want to continue to be successful long term.  I'm not bashing Baalke, but I'm not exactly full of confidence either.