(12-18-2023, 04:15 PM)NYC4jags Wrote:

(12-18-2023, 03:55 PM)Jagger Wrote: Well, if Biden’s approval keeps coming down the way it is…36% in today’s Monmouth poll which usually leans Democratic….then there will be no contested election in 2024. It will be a red wave no matter who runs for the Republican Party…Trump, Haley, MConnell, Greene, etc. etc etc. The ship is sinking.

Competitor approval ratings mean much less in today's political field. 



But the real determinant is going to be which candidate gets the biggest non-voter turnout. In other words how many will get registered just to vote for the guy. 

That's how Biden defeated Trump last time. 

Actually, if history is any indication, the real determinant is how the President is doing at re-election. Every election is about the incumbent. What was the lowest approval rating for a President to be re-elected? It sure was a lot higher than 36%. Plus, if this election has two ex-Presidents, it more or less comes down to when were you better off...2016-2020 OR 2020-2024? And that's why Biden's trailing in basically every single poll so far. People want to go back to how we had it in the late 2010s. 

That said, seeing Biden fail mentally, I think there has to be a plan in place at the Democratic Convention to replace him. I can't see him running again or the Dems or digging their own grave. There's no way he will make it given how's he failing. I mean, the guy had to read word-for-word a response from a reporter the other day at a press conference. I never in my life saw that before!

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