You are kind of looking at it as if you have the luxury of hindsight when you make the pick. Like they are picking the QB knowing that he will be an average player. I don't think they have that kind of mindset when they are evaluating a player.

 

Teams don't draft a QB with the idea of him becoming a mediocre starter. Where a team drafts a QB is not based on whether or not he will be a franchise player, but more to do with what the odds are that he will become a franchise player. If they don't at least see some sort of potential, they likely won't draft him at all.

 

I think a team is better off drafting players based on what they feel is the probability of them being successful NFL players weighted by the value of the position due to being a premium position or a need. Similar to the utility theory in economics.

 

Ex.

Say you weigh a QB on a scale of 1-10 as a 10 and you have a prospect that you believe has a 30%  chance of being successful. You multiply the percentage by the weight and you get a score of 3. Say you have a guard you weigh as a 5 that you believe has a 70% chance of being successful. You multiply that out and you get a weighted score of 3.5. 3.5 is greater than 3 so you take the guard.

 

If you stay disciplined to this approach you would maximize the overall talent in your drafts. This way you can take longer odds on guys who will have a bigger impact without passing up true value when it is there.

 

So to answer your question, it depends. It depends on how confident you feel in the QB vs what kind of value is still on the board.

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