(01-28-2024, 06:52 PM)Caldrac Wrote:

(01-28-2024, 06:49 PM)rpr52121 Wrote: Every team and fanbase thinks they get screwed by refs. 

Refs are just inconsistently inconsistent especially since the NFL doesn't make them full time positions with enough training, don't have enough of them on field at once, and doesn't give them the full resources with video assistance that they should.

Given how few games there are, and how the best teams play in more them, there will definitely feel like there are trends. But the sample sizes are way small to attribute any real bias in these situations.

Look up Warren Sharp's article. It's grossly imbalanced. Percentages back it up.

With that said? I think more than half the calls were fair today against Baltimore.

Flower's fumble and Jackson's INT are the ultimate cause for this loss today unless they pull off a miracle.

Lamar has also used very little of his God given speed today and it's baffling with a Superbowl appearance on the line.

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I still don't consider 49 games a large sample size especially when considering trends. You could say it's my bias working in medical research but that is my bias then.

Also I found this https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https%3...3eeba1c397.

Now, I have no way to verify Sharp's analysis or this random reddit posters's analysis to know who is correct. A better way to assess how abnormal this referee's outcomes are would be to see how different the spread is compared to outcomes for every referee and see if the difference for Shawn Smith is dramatically different for that difference compared to all referees. Also you would need to look to make there some true gaussian curve for the differences of those referees. Because with only 20-30 head referees, you can easily end up with a graph that is positively/negative skewed or has two peaks suggesting there is/are other variables at play. 

Plus is using the spread truly an accurate way to judge these things? It doesn't tell me if he is looking at opening spreads which is based purely on Vegas info, or after people have bet it up or down. Also spreads are intended to take into account how fans/betters "feel about the teams" in order for Vegas to make money no matter who wins, not an attempt to completely fairly break down the match up.

It would be in the NFL's best interest to address why this is happening, but I seriously doubt there is some underlying bias that this referee has for home teams because I don't know he wants to show up the home fans or something?

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