(02-01-2024, 01:05 PM)Caldrac Wrote:

(02-01-2024, 12:36 PM)Newton Wrote: I don’t think Ridley is as good as most people on here think he is. Even for the falcons, he had critical drops. I think he is the classic overpaid veteran free agent (in this free agent cycle). However, if he cuts us a discount, sure let’s keep him. I just see him going for the money. He already took 2 years off, and this is likely the last big payday of his career.

I don't think he's elite, however, I realize he's not far off from that when you weigh in everything that he had to go through over the last two years. 

Again, for me, it boils down to a few things, mainly, how many holes do you really want to walk into free agency and the draft trying to backfill, knowing that the current front office has historically struggled in identifying and selecting quality starting caliber receiver's via the draft?

It's going to be a tall order to replace that production, and, you're paying him based on trajectory and I think his trajectory would be WAY UP going into year two within this same offense and same QB situation. 

Would I like Mike Evans? Sure. Would I like Tee Higgins? Sure. The odds both of them escape Tampa Bay and Cincinatti respectively? Probably slim to none. Which means Ridley's value that much more goes up if he's legitimately able to test the market uncontested. 

I throw a four year deal at him, right at $75M, I front load it and incentive it to match with what should be at the minimum two more years with Lawrence's current contract situation, and, I give myself a very, very easy out going into 2025, 2026 if he's just not living up to what the trajectory indicates.

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(02-01-2024, 12:55 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: Pretend you’re the GM of another team considering making him an offer.  What are you willing to offer a 29 year old guy that turned in a solid 2023 season but also previously stepped away from football and then was suspended?  Obviously there will be language in any deal offered to protect the team given his history, but most of these other GMs probably have never had any interaction with him prior to these negotiations.  If I’m GM of another team, I’m probably taking my cue from the Jags FO who knows him best and watching and interpreting how interested they appear to be in re-signing him.  That sort of read has to happen before free agency begins though because deals can often get done quickly elsewhere if you sit on your hands.

I give him a four year deal valued right at $75M which would come out to $18.75M per year. I would front load and incentive it with escalators and specific marks that would enable bonus money up front instead of having to earn it in years three and four of the contract. I would guarantee him $25M of this contract and kick in a $10M signing bonus which is really like guaranteeing him $35M of the deal, which is slightly less than half the total value.

It’s going to probably take a little more than that in the signing bonus column in my opinion.  A low signing bonus such as this is very team friendly for years 3 and 4 if the team decides to move on which puts future 31 year old Calvin Ridley in not such a great spot. The higher the signing bonus makes it more likely that years 3 and 4 actually become real because of a higher dead cap figure to the team.  If Ridley signs such a deal as you propose, he’d be giving the team total control over making years 3 and 4 team option years with very little incentive to keep him unless he’s playing at god tier level.  From Ridley’s camp’s standpoint, you’d want there to be some incentive for the team to want to keep and pay you in years 3 and 4 and that’s accomplished with having a more significant dead cap figure.

Essentially, your numbers might be in line, but I think the deal is going to have to look a little different.  Who knows?  His market may be softer than expected and he has to take what he can get.

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