(02-01-2024, 01:23 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote:

(02-01-2024, 01:05 PM)Caldrac Wrote: I don't think he's elite, however, I realize he's not far off from that when you weigh in everything that he had to go through over the last two years. 

Again, for me, it boils down to a few things, mainly, how many holes do you really want to walk into free agency and the draft trying to backfill, knowing that the current front office has historically struggled in identifying and selecting quality starting caliber receiver's via the draft?

It's going to be a tall order to replace that production, and, you're paying him based on trajectory and I think his trajectory would be WAY UP going into year two within this same offense and same QB situation. 

Would I like Mike Evans? Sure. Would I like Tee Higgins? Sure. The odds both of them escape Tampa Bay and Cincinatti respectively? Probably slim to none. Which means Ridley's value that much more goes up if he's legitimately able to test the market uncontested. 

I throw a four year deal at him, right at $75M, I front load it and incentive it to match with what should be at the minimum two more years with Lawrence's current contract situation, and, I give myself a very, very easy out going into 2025, 2026 if he's just not living up to what the trajectory indicates.

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I give him a four year deal valued right at $75M which would come out to $18.75M per year. I would front load and incentive it with escalators and specific marks that would enable bonus money up front instead of having to earn it in years three and four of the contract. I would guarantee him $25M of this contract and kick in a $10M signing bonus which is really like guaranteeing him $35M of the deal, which is slightly less than half the total value.

It’s going to probably take a little more than that in the signing bonus column in my opinion.  A low signing bonus such as this is very team friendly for years 3 and 4 if the team decides to move on which puts future 31 year old Calvin Ridley in not such a great spot. The higher the signing bonus makes it more likely that years 3 and 4 actually become real because of a higher dead cap figure to the team.  If Ridley signs such a deal as you propose, he’d be giving the team total control over making years 3 and 4 team option years with very little incentive to keep him unless he’s playing at god tier level.  From Ridley’s camp’s standpoint, you’d want there to be some incentive for the team to want to keep and pay you in years 3 and 4 and that’s accomplished with having a more significant dead cap figure.

Essentially, your numbers might be in line, but I think the deal is going to have to look a little different.  Who knows?  His market may be softer than expected and he has to take what he can get.

If he gives me his best football in 2024 and 2025 he'll earn the majority of this contract. Even with the easy out for the football team, his camp could also look at it like this, he did miss two years worth of football which gives him a little bit more shelf life going into this part of his career. 

Maybe he wants that easy out anyway if he's just producing big numbers here and not getting any wins or titles or accolades for his work. Essentially it gives him a chance to chase down a winning football team on a new deal elsewhere. No different than what happens with this position in general. 

We see it with everybody really. Even the all-time greats. Rice to Oakland. Owens to Philadelphia. Moss to New England. List goes on. There has to be a degree of sensibility within himself and his camp. 

Take the money here in a tax free state, give it your best two year run, wait until the end of 2025, early 2026 arrives and they can have another discussion. I think if we're being honest, giving him $35M guaranteed out of a $75M contract on four years is probably no different than what he'd get elsewhere. 

Most teams looking to compete right now would probably throw a 2 year deal at him worth close to $40M with maybe half of that guaranteed. We'll see I guess. All of this is based on whether or not the front office gets a deal worked out with Josh Allen prior to free agency starting.

If they reserve that tag for him? I could see Ridley easily walking. This is where Baalke and his staff begin to earn their salt.

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