(02-20-2024, 06:53 PM)TheDuke007 Wrote:

(02-19-2024, 06:04 PM)Khan Artist Wrote: Do we really think Baalke is capable of drafting a player better than Ridley with our 2nd rounder?

Let's put aside Baalke for the moment.  What are the odds for any GM?  I was curious and looked at last year's draft.  Below were the results for the top three rounds:  

First Round:  Four wide receivers were drafted.  Their receiving yards ranged from 431 to 911 with an average of 707 yards.

Second Round:  Four wide receivers were drafted.  Their receiving yards ranged from 377 to 938 with an average of 632 yards.

Third Round:  Six wide receivers were drafted.  Their receiving yards ranged from 224 to 771 with an average of 496 yards.

There were more receivers in the top three rounds with less than 400 yards than there were with over 800 yards.  None had over 1000 yards.  None had more than Ridley's 1016 yards.  To be fair, if you expanded it to the entire draft, strangely there was one player in the fifth round with more yards than Ridley.  However, that's just 1 out of 33 wide receivers drafted.  I like the idea of sticking with Ridley.

That's quite superficial, though. Is that a symptom of the darft class being just ok, did the teams rolling with youth at WR spend their money elsewhere to better benefit, did the teams have another WR who was drawing more of the catches either because they were already stars, or because these rooks were drawing the prime coverage?

I think the whole "our GM can't replace [player]" argument is bunk regardless, this isn't just me dumping on your research. The darft isn't about replacing player or stat. It's about improving the team. What if we darft a 10-year all pro center with that second rounder? Didn't replace a single yard receiving, but is that likely going to better our season results? 

The question should be is the cost of paying Rid, losing the pick better than letting him go, saving cap, keeping a pick and likely getting a compy in return? I'm not denying that Rid is fantastic. I'm not saying that any rook will replicate him or his stats. The cost of keeping him is more than just a second rounder. We need to factor in the totality of the transaction if we choose to poop on our GM's ability to handle the outcome, whichever direction they choose to go.

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