(03-16-2024, 01:07 PM)Jaguarmeister Wrote:

(03-16-2024, 11:22 AM)Jag149 Wrote: I usually shy away from specific player names for that reason. (It is a personal choice) As fans we are at a disadvantage not having all the information. We don't see medical records, spend as much time watching tape, investigating backgrounds or interviewing the players.  Generally, I use 4 general policies on my draft opinions.

1. Never trade up in the draft. There has never been ONE player that anyone can point to that enabled a team to win the Superbowl.
2 Always trade down and acquire more picks if you can get your next target. Draft picks are the life blood of an organization's ability to continually be competitive. Last year what Baalkie did with our first round pick was opportunistic perfection. Not his fault no one would let him trade up. I wonder if he tried to package some to trade to some cap strapped team for the next year's pick.
3. Level of competition matters. We once had a GM that didn't understand that. Most teams (there are notable exceptions) have maybe one or two guys that will get drafted. What players can do in college may not translate once they face the higher level of competition at the professional level.
4. If a player has injury issues on the college level then odds are very good he will most definitely at the professional level. The hits are much harder and there are no cupcakes to rest up on.  It truly is a grind. Now one has to take into account the conference on this one as a couple do has an elevated grind in comparison to others.

Only a Sith deals in absolutes.  All kidding aside, I disagree with the bolded strongly.  Holding the Super Bowl up as the qualifier does not negate whether trading up is a good idea or not.  Many trade ups have paid off for the team trading up by getting a more impactful player by trading picks that turned out to be just "guys".  Julio Jones comes to mind.  I was not a fan of the Falcons move up to get him at the time, but I seem to recall reviewing all the picks given up to move up to get him a while back and Julio was worth well more than all of them.

You trade up if the tier higher of players to choose from is dwindling and will likely be gone before you pick.  It's the same principle in multi-year fantasy football leagues that allow draft pick trading.  The problem with trading up is, you better be right which comes down to scouting.  The talent pools of a given NFL draft class and drop offs in talent don't necessarily align with NFL draft rounds and the talent pool will vary year to year as well.  Properly identifying individual talent, properly identifying the talent pool as a whole and figuring out where the drop offs happen is part art and part science.

You trade down when there are many guys graded similarly to choose from and no strong preference and you value picking up some later round picks to fill out the bottom of your roster.  You also trade down if a tier drop off occurred shortly before you were supposed to pick (i.e. one or a few guys you would have taken all got selected right before your pick).   I would argue in that scenario, had you been able to find a trade partner, you should have probably traded up to select from the next highest tier of graded players.  But finding a willing trade partner that won't take you to the cleaners isn't a given as they may have identified the talent pool similarly to you and are also aware of the drop off in talent after their pick.

This is just my opinion and a general summary of how I look at the draft. I am sure others think differently. They are generalizations that to me appear to reflect what pretty successful people have done over the years. They are not absolute. (I am not a Sith)

I hate trading up because it cost draft capital. Also, despite it working out it generally the odds favor it not being incremental enough to justify the capital expense from where I sit. You only get 7 picks per year and based on any success rate chart for draftees you limit your chances. There are notable exceptions, but for everyone of those there are more where it was not a good idea. Mahomes was a good deal,  but what about Trey Lance? Call me a bit risk adverse, just how I see it.  Bravo to those who pull it off. Link below is for QB's take a look and see the rate. It is about the same for other positions too.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story...uarterback

Trading down. The key phrase here is "if you can get your next target".  How you establish that can be quite diverse. You have shown a few examples. Obviously you do it to acquire more resources.

How would you go about this?

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