(03-16-2024, 02:08 PM)Jag149 Wrote: This is just my opinion and a general summary of how I look at the draft. I am sure others think differently. They are generalizations that to me appear to reflect what pretty successful people have done over the years. They are not absolute. (I am not a Sith)

I hate trading up because it cost draft capital. Also, despite it working out it generally the odds favor it not being incremental enough to justify the capital expense from where I sit. You only get 7 picks per year and based on any success rate chart for draftees you limit your chances. There are notable exceptions, but for everyone of those there are more where it was not a good idea. Mahomes was a good deal,  but what about Trey Lance? Call me a bit risk adverse, just how I see it.  Bravo to those who pull it off. Link below is for QB's take a look and see the rate. It is about the same for other positions too.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2021/story...uarterback

Trading down. The key phrase here is "if you can get your next target".  How you establish that can be quite diverse. You have shown a few examples. Obviously you do it to acquire more resources.

How would you go about this?

So that's the conundrum. The darft is a gamble, period.

Trading up amplifies the risk, though, because you're raising the stakes on what you already had on the table. If it pays off, you rake in your winnings. If it does not, you're often left scrambling to try to recoup the loss elsewhere. Think of how many times we (and other franchises) have swung and missed on prospective QB, OT, etc.

Trading back is also risk. You give up the chance to take a player who may be more talented, but try to reduce the risk by gaining more resources. You still have risk that the guy you want doesn't fall that far back, and either you have to trade back up to get them or settle for another player. 

As with anything, the move is a calculation of risk. How much is too much to keep you from moving up? How much is enough to move you back from where you are scheduled to pick? What player is worth overpaying in the now to enjoy rewards later?

Lance is the prime example of why you have to be sure if you are making that bold of a jump. RGIII was a similar cost, but looked to be worth the price until he destroyed his knee. The Vikes move last week was only the first of their trades this year, I'm pretty sure. Bold move, it better pay off or the loss will impact the franchise for several years. What if the tinhorns traded away a chance at a stellar player, not even knowing who was left on the board? Calculated risk.

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