(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

I made a similar hypothetical here.  Rather than a consensus board online, you would have to have some insight into the other teams draft boards.  If you're confident that he is rated as a late 3rd round pick by (all) the other teams, you take the 2nd player rated in the late second (assuming he's at a different position), and trade up your 85th pick to the very top of the other teams draft boards and select him.  

The draft is a gamble, if a player busts he busts, is he's an all-pro he's an all-pro, if someone takes him at 60 then your insight to the other teams draft boards is flawed.  The best drafters line up all of those unknowns and make the best decision with the information they have at hand. No one is perfect, like poker, it's the teams make the least amount of mistakes/or the best gambles that "win" the draft year-over-year.

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