(04-30-2024, 08:49 AM)HardcoreMoJagFan Wrote: Just sticking with the draft.  Hypothetically:

You've ranked a player on your board 9.25 out of a 10 score.

To you this is a player who has a late first/early second round grade.

Most online consensus boards show this player as a player who should be picked in the late third round.  You evaluating the player cannot understand why, but it is what you've seen.

Your pick comes up at 55 (late second).  He's available and the next top person on your list has a late second grade, but consensus rankings have him with an early second grade.  You could equally use either player.

Your next draft selection is at 85 (late third).

Do you draft said player or wait?

Also what is worse.  If you draft this player at 55 and he busts?  Or if you don't draft him, someone else takes him at 60 and he becomes an all-pro?

To the hypothetical:

The first issue is whether your scouting is superior to recognize unseen talent, or if there is an overvaluation somewhere. If you see the guy as a top 40 player where everyone else sees top 100, that's a significant variance that needs your attention. You should be able to discern from visits or exhibitions if other teams are gathering info on the player.

You might look at what is the cost to move up to ~65 from 85, if you think you can still get the player at that spot or therabouts. You might also look to see what can be gained from trading back from 55 to maybe 62. Does one option afford you better value? For example, do you take the next top person at 55, then trade up to 67 from 85 if your guy is still available? Maybe trading back nets you a future pick, but to do so you pass on the next highest guy and are zeroed in now on the guy that you have skewed from conventional thinking.

All that said, if I am at 55 and I can't move, I take the top guy on my board. My board should already account for talent, fit, general area where they are expected to be picked, and potential to develop.

As to the second part, it always hurts more when your pick flops vs. when you pass on a guy who hits. Consider 2011. We moved up for Blaine Gabbert. Next pick? JJ Watt. Where we were slotted? Ryan Kerrigan. Sucks that we missed out on both of those guys, but neither one hoisted a Lombardi on their own merit. Would we have been a better team having either of those guys on the roster? absofreakinlutely. But if Gabbert was a ten-year fixture at the position, we wouldn't have been nearly as crippled roster-wise in the years that followed.

You're up against 31 other teams. More important that you hit on your picks than to worry about whether or not the other teams are getting the hits. Look at the teams that hit consistently, and where they are in January. More often that not, they're still playing playoff ball.

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