(05-09-2024, 12:53 PM)Mikey Wrote:

(05-09-2024, 10:54 AM)cland Wrote: A 2nd rounder has a %33 chance of becoming a starter (so it's way less than guaranteed), a 3rd rounder has a %16 chance.  (1st rounder has a %50 chance.)  If you tally a team with their allotted picks (1 pick in each round) they have a %117 of finding a starter throughout the draft, a %58 chance of having 2 starters, etc. These numbers are based off finding a run-of-the-mill starting player.  As expected the numbers change based on your slot in each round, so I would assume these numbers are based on a team in the middle slot (exactly where the Jaguars were.)

My feeling is that the best GMs can increase that number by %10 or so, but I don't have any numbers to back up that opinion.

source?

I smell some skewed stats. Maybe day one starter percentages above?

Here's a link to the numbers I've used (they show up on the google search results for whatever that's worth): 20 year analysis as it had the longest time period and had the most clear data.  I came up with 117% by adding all of the percentages from round 1 - round 7.  This link shows that 44% of first rounders sign a 2nd contract with the teams that have drafted them from (since 2011).  More analysis here.

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