(05-24-2024, 08:36 AM)Jaguarmeister Wrote: I think people are digging their feet into the sand on a side on this and I don't think it matters that much whether we pay him this year or next.  Sure, it will be more next year but so will the cap and everything else will work itself out.  Though, I've seen enough to know he's worth extending and I also understand how the market works, so paying him now will save a few million per year over the course of the deal and if you've seen enough as I have that's smart business, but if they paid him next year that's cool too.  The extra $3-5 million saved per year isn't going to be the reason we win or lose on game day.

Here's the thing for those opposed to paying him now though.  They can and probably will structure the deal to where the guarantees are all gone by the end of year 3 and the guarantees are all that matters on a bad contract (and they will probably re-do his deal again in that span).  So, even if you're correct that he winds up not being worth it over the next few years, they'll likely be able to part ways if they desire during or after year 3.  Even a mistake of a contract in that scenario isn't that big of a deal in the grand scheme because nothing about Lawrence suggests that his floor is bottom half of the league or worse.  Goff got what, $73M guaranteed?  That's for all the intents and purposes a 2 year "continue to prove it" deal.  I think people are getting caught up in the total number, but the total number is the going salary for competent QB play and it's only going to get higher.  It will be closer to $60M per year next year. 

TLDR;  unbunch your panties, it doesn't matter.

I'm seeing $170.6M guaranteed for Goff here.  There is no doubt that there is risk in signing a huge contract to a player that doesn't quite get you there, in Tlaw's case the Jags are increasing the guaranteed money from 36M to 170M.  If they structure it as you mentioned (guaranteed money in the first three years) that's 56.6M guaranteed per year. That's a huge commitment if the team decides TLaw isn't the franchise QB.  But if the team is convinced that Trevor is the guy, then signing him now reduces his salary over the next ~6ish years (4 year extension.)

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