(08-08-2024, 10:40 AM)Jagwired Wrote:

(08-08-2024, 10:32 AM)The Real Marty Wrote: Most public opinion polls have her pulling even or ahead.  So, laugh now, cry in November, unless something changes.

National : President: general election : 2024 Polls | FiveThirtyEight

I ask this in all seriousness. How do you think most of the polls are conducted? Do they contact the respondents or do the respondents seek out the survey?
I ask only because I have been a registered voter, retired military, long time business owner and have never once been contacted for a poll. I find that very odd.

You can't have a legitimate poll where the respondents seek out the survey.  That wouldn't lead to a valid sample.  You have to construct the sample correctly, which means the right ratio of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents, and the right ratio of other factors like race and sex, and then you have to figure out who's actually going to vote.  It's not easy to do.  But the pollster has to contact the respondents, not the other way around.  

I've never been contacted for a poll, either, but since there are about 210 million registered voters in the United States, the odds are pretty remote that they would call you or me.  

I took statistics in college, and I remember that 1,000 people can be a very good sample if the sample is truly random.  The problems come in when you construct your sample.

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