(09-03-2024, 05:39 PM)OG-JAGFAN Wrote:

(09-03-2024, 04:38 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: I'm going to need a link to that.

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I don't see anywhere on his site or twitter that reflects those numbers.

Polls mean squat.  I learned that the hard way when I was foreign to politics and watched the Hillary/Trump Election.  I was watching all these "expert" and "professional" pollsters all swearing that Hillary was easily going to take the win. They all had this smug arrogance about them with all the polls showing HIllary would win.  They learned a hard lesson not to trust the polls that night.

Most of the polls do not tell you "who" they are polling.  Prime example,  IF an "expert" interviewed 100,000 people and had data that Harris was going to easily win, that would be on the front page of the NY times and all over ABC/CNN/MSNBC and every other news outlet .  The part that same pollster may have left out is he did the poll in California, or the North east, or somewhere crazy liberal.  My point being is outside of clear labeled national polls you cannot trust them.

The problem with political polling data is that 52 to 48 is still a toss of the dice. It's not predictive in that it guarantees who would win or not. It's simply attempting to point out the odds. Nobody on this forum would bet the house on a sports game where the odds were 52-48. It's close. They have ways to account for oversampling, but I don't think that's the reason people don't trust the polls.

Polling isn't reliable because the American public is fickle. It's been almost no time since the Trump assassination and everyone's forgotten about it. It's been just over 2 months since Kamala netted the lowest VP rating of all time, and now everyone on the left thinks she's amazing. More often than not, the polling data is reliable, but the American public is not. It also doesn't understand polling. Polling is also used by MSM pundits to emphasize political positions. Polling, in and of itself, is almost never "untrue."

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(09-03-2024, 07:26 PM)mikesez Wrote:

(09-03-2024, 04:38 PM)Lucky2Last Wrote: I'm going to need a link to that.

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I don't see anywhere on his site or twitter that reflects those numbers.

It's not a poll.  It's a probability of winning the electoral college and it's from Nate Silver's model.

www.natesilver.net

If it was a poll, that'd be a landslide, but it's a probability and it's very very close. He's saying if the election was run in 9 parallel universes with the same measurables, Trump would win in 5 of them and Harris would win in 4 of them.

Where did I say it was a poll? I don't see this information on his site anywhere.

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