(09-04-2024, 07:40 AM)imtheblkranger Wrote:

(09-03-2024, 05:15 PM)cland Wrote: Hehe, you're both incorrect.  The winner of the Indy-Texans game was going to the playoffs and the loser wasn't; regardless of the Jaguars performance.  The Jaguars losing gave the Texans the AFC Championship and home-field in the wildcard.

PS.  I like how the evaluation has migrated to, "CJ got very lucky for most of the year last year."

That was my evaluation all off season. He was good, far better than I expected. But statistically he was an anomaly who should have had many more turnovers. He'll regress to the mean in that department and we'll see what he does. Again, he's very good, and I'm pissed the Houston has him. But everyone claiming him to be a top 5 QB and whatnot has to pump their brakes a bit. Let's see what he does moving forward. A lot of QBs had great rookie years (sure not as good as CJ, but good) and then fizzled out. RG3, Baker, Mac to a degree, Dak can't win [BLEEP], Wentz, Jameis. All had pretty damn good rookie years and haven't done a thing with it. If you put any stock into ESPN's QBR (which I personally don't like much) he was middle of the pack. Slightly above Trevor but below Geno and Minshew. He had a 1% INT last year, even the best of all time average around 2-3% except for Rodgers who's at a career 1.4%
 
I don't think Houston has to worry about QB for a long time, but I just need to see it again. If he continues to be a statistical anomaly, then damn, you guys got super lucky.

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I was actually looking for a 'passes defended stat for QBs', but didn't have any luck finding a list.  I would assume that if CJ Stroud was 'extra lucky' in terms of interceptions, that he would have a lot more passes defended per pass than his interception rate per pass (in relation.)  Essentially that the opposing CB/S/LB had his hands on the ball, but wasn't able to reel it in.  On the other hand if his defended pass per attempt was low, then I think you (the evaluator) would have to agree that his accuracy/timing/decision-making was the result of his success and not just luck that the CB/S/LB couldn't reel in the ball.  (I realize there are other factors in passes defended, but I think that's a good start.)  There's no doubt that all QBs throw more 'bad balls,' than shows up on the interception stat.  They all get 'lucky' in that sense, but I'm interested in 'how lucky' a QB is.

All that being said, said I do think that 5 INTs for the season is certainly going to be unsustainable.  But I think the TD/INT rate will be in a reasonable ballpark of 23 TDs - 5 INTs.  One thing no one talks about from last year, is that if you erase the 2 concussion games he was sidelined and put in avg stats he would have led the league in total pass yards, as he led all QBs in pass yards/game.

In terms of QBR, I think that it's completely nonsense for two main reasons.  1. It's a 'super secret formula' to calculate it that can't be openly verified.  2. If you agree that the QB is not completely responsible for wins and losses, I would expect that the losing teams QB would have out-dueled the winning teams QB in terms of QBR way more than that stat has historically shown.  From what I can tell it's basically some form of (TD - INT) + (Yards/pass) + (Did the team win X 80.)

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