Quote: I personally don't believe we're in the type of draft where you've got a clearly-defined top three, and then everyone else. There are going to be a handful of players with very similar grades at the top of the board. I would venture to say that I don't see any scenario in which drafting Matthews at three would make sense this year. No matter who the top two picks are, there will be several players available who make sense at three, even if it means drafting a 7.6 over a 7.7 to plug the holes at QB, WR or DE/LB.

 

I think this true in most drafts.  You may have one small select tier of players at the very top and if you arent picking from that upper tier, I'm not sure the difference in value is all that great.  Not enough to warrant taking a guy at a position where he would rarely see the field versus a guy who would get immediate and potentially impactful playing time.

 

Pick any number in the draft.  Lets say #10.  Go look at the last 15 years of the 10th selection and tell me how many times there is a more impactful player taken within the next 5 picks after. I bet you could find one almost every year.  The real difference in value between the 10th pick and the 15th pick isnt that high.  You just arent going to see huge gaps in talent in the first round unless you are at some extreme upper tier.  Like a Luck/RG3 tier and then everyone else.  Last year there really wasnt an upper tier.  And this year that tier is Clowney and then everyone else... and even thats debatable. 

 

I think where BAP makes the most sense is later in the draft.  3rd, 4th, 5th rounds, etc...  if you are sitting there middle of the 3rd and there is some guy you had borderline first round talent still available.  Even if he doesnt fit a need, who cares.  Take the borderline first rounder.  If you are sitting there in the 5th and youve got a borderline late 2nd, early 3rd rounder sitting there.  Take that guy.

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