(10-03-2024, 12:16 AM)cland Wrote: I'd say there are 10-12 QBs playing right now that are good enough to get into the playoffs and compete. Is it high risk, high reward? Sure. But "insanely rare" and "you hitting the lottery this week" is a large overstatement. As I have mentioned, why would six NFL teams try to take a QB at the top of the draft if it was so impossible?
But talking about QBs specifically is off subject from the original post. Building on star players as opposed to above-average ones is what you still need to address.
In terms of the Tinhorns:
QB CJ Stroud
OL Laremy Tunsil
DL Will Anderson
WR Nico Collins
CB Derek Stingley
These are stars (or on their way) and fundamental players that the team is/can be built around, all but Tunsil were drafted.
Are there other players that would be difficult to replace? Sure, but losing any of the above players would hurt the team way, way more.
You're aiding my point without realizing it apparently.
Let's get back to a fundamental aspect of this discussion.
Building.
Teams have certain years that are "rebuild years" and they occasionally have "blow it up and start over years" and then they have years where they are just in build/get better mode.
Whether you are beginning a rebuild or having a blow it up and start over year - your chances of landing superstars is slim.
Most teams in those situations will miss on a QB more often than they hit on one. For our argument - let's say it's a player that becomes a top ten QB within the period of his rookie deal. That concession aids your argument BTW.
How many teams out there do you think have spun their wheels for 6 years or more trying to draft a superstar or top ten QB only to miss on at least 2 of them?
What do you think the GMs did with the rest of their cap and draft capital during that period?
Hint: they went after building blocks positionally and took smaller swings (less expensive capital) on potential superstars at other positions.
The "insanely rare" and "lottery" quotes you are misrepresenting referred to your ridiculous outlier of building around Mahomes and Kielce. Now you are attempting to backpedal from that with "top ten of twelve QB"
Big difference
make up your mind
You may need to define superstar for us as you seem to have wheels under your goalposts now.
The fact of the matter is that every GM wants to land a superstar every offseason, but the unpredictability of it and the rarity of it means that GMs are often forced to begin and maintain a build in the absence of such game-changing players until they finally strike gold.
If you have no adaptive plan to build with lesser cornerstones and foundational pieces, then most of your building efforts are going to fail miserably until you strike a vein of treasures and lord only knows when that will happen.
