Not sure where to post this but a harsh but fair piece by ESPN.


Three-and-a-half seasons after a team drafts its quarterback of the future, it should have everything in place. It has had time to evaluate its coaching staff, to find players who fit the offense to understand every idiosyncrasy and preference of the quarterback. It should know what its quarterback wants to do in key situations and have the players and scheme in place to do it.

Sunday was the 3½-year mark for Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville. What does that identity look like for the Jaguars? I'm not sure they know. It seems damning that with the offense in the red zone, down five points with 1:42 to go, potentially in position to steal a game they didn't deserve on the road away from the Eagles, they got to a playcall and choice I'm not sure any offensive coach in the league would endorse.

A wheel route to third-string running back D'Ernest Johnson? The same Johnson who has one catch in his career on a throw traveling more than 10 yards in the air, and that came on a scramble drill in 2019? That probably wasn't the first read on the play, but with Lawrence being pressured around relatively new left tackle Walker Little by Brandon Graham, it was the only throw he could make. And with Johnson basically turned into a defender on an overthrown ball, linebacker Nakobe Dean intercepted Lawrence's pass to seal the victory for the Eagles.

Everything about that sentence isn't what the Jaguars planned but has turned out to be the universe where Lawrence lives. Johnson was on the field because neither of Jacksonville's top two backs are healthy or, in some cases, reliable. Travis Etienne, who was drafted in the first round in 2021 because of his shared experience at Clemson with Lawrence and his ability as a pass catcher, regurgitated a pass into Zack Baun's hands for an interception in the second quarter and played four snaps the rest of the way. Tank Bigsby, the team's best back this season, had played virtually the entire second half and came off the field in the final two minutes.

Little, meanwhile, is in his own evaluation phase. The Jags used a second-round pick on him in the 2021 draft thinking he might end up as a future starting tackle. He filled in around the line, but when they lost Jawaan Taylor in free agency, they used another first-round pick on Anton Harrison. Little spent time at left tackle and left guard last season, but only now, with Cam Robinson benched and then traded to the Vikings, Little is getting an extended look as the first-team left tackle, months before he's eligible for free agency.


It's fair to note the Jaguars have been hit by injuries at receiver, with Christian Kirk out for the season (collarbone) and Gabe Davis sidelined for the game (shoulder). They gave significant snaps to Parker Washington and Austin Trammell in this game, with the latter catching the 22-yard crosser that set up the game-ending interception. Frankly, the offense wasn't great with Kirk and Davis playing regularly. Kirk had 379 receiving yards in eight games, while Davis was at 217.

Those two players combine to make $31 million per season in average annual salary on their respective deals. Evan Engram, who turned 10 targets into 45 yards in his usual role as the dump-off receiver, adds another $13.8 million to the mix. That's nearly $45 million per season on pass catchers who don't give defensive coordinators even the tiniest bit of heartburn during the week. They're not bad players, but even when they're healthy, whom should Lawrence turn to when he needs a first down in a critical situation?

On top of the talent concerns, the Jaguars have been one of the league's most frustrating offenses to watch on a weekly basis. They rarely feel like they have 11 players on the same page. Earlier this season, I put together a long thread about their loss to the Texans and how disjointed the offense looked from snap-to-snap. Linemen weren't able to sustain blocks in short yardage. Lawrence missed throws and didn't get the ball out when he was hot. The timing of routes weren't tied to his dropbacks. There was no big-picture plan to deal with the opposing team's best defenders. The team's top receivers didn't win in Cover 0 against backup safeties. It wasn't one thing. Just about everything and everyone was to blame, the quarterback included.

Rewatching the Week 8 loss to the Packers, I could just as easily have put together a similar thread. Receivers ran routes into the same area. A shotgun snap hit tight end Josiah Deguara while he was in motion. A brutally bad cut block attempt blew up one third-and-short, while Lawrence missed a pass to Johnson on another, and Bigsby was stuffed on a third.

There were more problems on third downs Sunday. Lawrence was sacked by a Josh Sweat bull rush through Little on third-and-4. He was stuffed on a third-and-1 sneak. Pressure forced a third-and-5 throw to Trammell that was broken up and a throwaway on another third down, while a deep lob to Washington was incomplete when the receiver jumped too early.

On third-and-5 or less, the average team converts nearly 53% of the time. The Jags instead pick that up 36.5% of the time, which is the worst mark in the league by nearly four percentage points. They were 1-for-8 in those situations against the Eagles. While every offense would prefer to move the chains before getting to third down, it's almost impossible to pick up third downs if a team can't convert third-and-manageable on a regular basis.

And on the flip side, well-coached defenses get opposing offenses in third-and-long and shut the door. Third-and-long is an opportunity to get those offenses to give up with a run or short checkdown or a chance to create a turnover with a big play. If you've watched a single NFL game, you've heard the color analyst say there aren't any plays in the playbook for third-and-insert-large-number-here.

The average NFL team allows opposing offenses to convert about 8% of the time on third-and-15 or more. The Jags are more generous. They've allowed opposing offenses to get a first down or a touchdown 39% of the time in those situations, which is comfortably the worst mark in football. The league's 31 other teams have allowed five third-and-forever touchdowns this season. Jacksonville has given up four itself, including two to the Eagles.

The first was in the final moments of the second quarter, when just about anything would have forced Philly to kick a field goal. Facing a third-and-17 from the 19-yard line after an offensive pass interference penalty nullified a touchdown, the Eagles handed off the ball to running back Saquon Barkley. And while Barkley didn't invent a new hurdle on this play, he somehow managed to go 19 yards totally untouched for a touchdown. Defensive back Montaric Brown was unable to force Barkley inside to his help, and Barkley easily beat Brown to the pylon for a score.


Two quarters later, the Eagles faced a third-and-22 from the 25-yard line in a six-point game. With wideout A.J. Brown sidelined by a knee injury, the obvious place for Jalen Hurts to go with the football was to DeVonta Smith. Did the Jaguars double Smith? No. They played what looks to be quarters coverage, got no pressure on Hurts, and Smith ran a double-move past Ronald Darby before making a spectacular touchdown catch in the back of the end zone.

This isn't a freak occurrence in a 13-play sample. Expand the group out to third-and-8-plus and the Jags still have the third-worst conversion rate allowed of any team. They have allowed seven touchdowns in that range, and no other team has given up more than two. They're not just allowing the worst EPA per play of any team on third-and-8-plus this season, but the most for any team through nine weeks since 2007, which is far back as ESPN's data goes.

Even with those issues, the Jags could have stolen this game. For all of Barkley's brilliance, he handed them a defensive touchdown with an untouched fumble at the end of a short run, then slid down at the end of a second-and-13 run for 9 yards when he could have pushed forward before being stuffed on third-and-4. The Jags hit a pair of two-pointers, and after Jake Elliott missed a 57-yard field goal, they had a chance to save their season with a two-minute drill. They managed one completion in six plays, although they were aided by a pass interference call on Avonte Maddox.

At 2-7, Jacksonville's season is all but over. The 2020 Washington Football Team is the only instance in league history of a 2-7 start producing a postseason berth, and that took a division where everyone else collapsed and seven wins was enough to win the title. The Texans haven't lived up to expectations, but at 6-3, they're probably going to win at least another two games. That probably would be enough to eliminate Jacksonville from playoff contention, given that coach Doug Pederson's team still has to play the Lions and Vikings before its bye.

Then again, who would have thought the Jags were going to miss the playoffs at 8-3 a year ago? Since that "Monday Night Football" game when they were in position to claim the top seed in the AFC with a victory over the Bengals, they've gone 3-12. Last season, their slide out of the postseason felt like a combination of bad luck and Lawrence's various maladies. This season, it feels like bad football getting the return it deserves.

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