(01-12-2025, 11:34 AM)The Real Marty Wrote:

(01-12-2025, 11:15 AM)Jaguar Warrior Wrote: I like Ben Johnson as an X's and O's guy but I am not so sure about him as a leader of men. All the young X's and O's wunderkind coaches flash but never take it to the next level. Look at all the currently successful coaches making big and lasting runs - all of them are charismatic leaders not exactly known for their genius schemes. Rather, they are known for their ability to lead, develop talent, and find the right personnel. Who knows, maybe Ben Johnson is both, but if he were, I don't think we are a lucky enough franchise to land that type of person.

If one looks at a list of current head coaches, you can see that there are numerous head coaches who did not come from the offensive side of the ball.  Including but not limited to, Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, Jonathan Gannon, Raheem Morris, Sean McDermott, Dan Campbell, DeMeco Ryans, Mike MacDonald, Todd Bowles, and Dan Quinn.  Pretty soon, Mike Vrabel.   

In these playoffs, the following teams have HCs who were never offensive coordinators: Steelers, Ravens, Bills, Lions, Texans, Bucs, and Commanders.  Ravens, Bills, and Lions would be among the favorites to win the Super Bowl.  

I don't mind having an offensive coordinator as a HC, but if you look at that list of coaches who were never offensive coordinators, and who are having great success, with a lot of them getting great things from their QB, it strikes me that being an offensive coordinator doesn't matter.  It's leadership that matters.  What matters is the ability to organize, delegate, and motivate.  Hold people accountable.  Have hard conversations with anyone not giving 100%.  

I really don't give a crap if a candidate has pencil-whipped every team in the league.  That's nice, but it's way down my list of characteristics and qualifications that I would be looking for in a head coach.

I hear people saying the next head coach needs to be a person who gets the most out of Trevor.  I'm beyond the point of giving a crap about that.  I want a defense and a running game.  Give us that, and whoever is our QB will thrive and look great.

How many of those HC were brought in after the franchise already had a potential franchise QB? How many of those teams were paying at least Daniel Jones level cap space to their starting QB and were defensive focused teams (Chiefs is only one, but having the GOAT's at 2 positions and 2 more HoF's makes them an exception)? 

Now if you think Lawrence will only ever be Adam Smith, late career Flacco, or Drew Bledsoe, and the Jags don't have a potential franchise QB, then those teams as examples make more sense because he would a stepping stone for the Jags to level up at QB on a rookie deal in 27/28 anyways.

For example, Herbert just had a culture guy brought in. They were competent in the reg season but exposed in the playoffs. An argument could be made that Harbaugh's offense and the weapons around Herbert don't really maximize Herberts strengths nor allowed him to develop. Now if Herbert is purely a good/mediocre QB, it changes matters. He would be a stepping stone, and Harbaugh can bring in a better QB in a few years. But that is a different plan going forward.

The culture type HC is a floor raiser. It is necessary for a level of consistency over the long haul. But if you think you already have a franchise quality QB who can lead you to a SB win, you need a ceiling raiser.

The other issue with the culture type HC is that this not going to be a quick turnaround to be a SB contender especially with Baalke staying and mucking up talent acquisition. Earliest would probably be 27 or 3 seasons.

Say you bring a culture type HC who is "successful." Jags make playoffs in 25 & 26 and win 1-2 playoff games over that span. It would likely happen because Trevor turned it around and the offense looks good. Most likely that means you are losing that OC. Just look at the OC's that 'turned around' Baker, Geno, and Goff. 

So the first year the team would be a true SC contender in 27, it wouldn't even be the first OC the culture HC hires. It would be the OC replacement in 2 years. 

Let's say the chances that you hit on the perfect play calling HC is 5%, and hitting on a floor raising competent culture HC is 25%. That culture HC still has to find a 2 successive good OC's. Even if the chances for that is 40% both times (which I think is an overestimation), hitting on all three gives you only 4% of getting it all right in the end.

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