(01-13-2025, 10:40 AM)Mikey Wrote:

(01-10-2025, 03:04 PM)cland Wrote: The correct answer is that both Mahomes and Burrow would both outperform Lawrence in the Jags 2024 offense, and you can several other names to that list.  If that can't be agreed to, then you've hopelessly driven off a cliff.

But is our expectation that our #1 QB just outperform the 2024 stats, or is it that we obliterate those marks? How do you think Murray, Young, heck, Herbert, Tua or other top ten QB fare?

I think we can all agree that Mahomes and Burrow are the two best QB in the league, and yes, everyone should expect them to maximize potential of those around them. They're not the QB you get in any darft, though. My point is that if we are holding TLaw to the standard of #1 pick, maybe we should be looking at the other #1 picks to say whether he's comparable.

I certainly would love TLaw to be in the same conversation as Joey B, Mahomes or even Allen, but so would 25 or so other fanbases, too. If that's the standard, you're not ever going to be satisfied.

Well, I'm of the mind that the coaches platitude, "Where you were drafted ends once you suit up for your first day of practice." is the way to go.  Now that's never actually true, first round picks always get the benefit of the doubt and they get many more opportunities to prove their abilities than a lower rounded pick, but the truth is that 1st round picks bust %50 of the time, including the #1 QBs that are chosen at that position.

If you redrafted the 2017 draft, the vast majority of teams would trade 2 or 3 1st rounders to go up and select Patrick Mahomes at #1 as opposed to #10.  And the actual #1 pick, Trubisky, would likely have fallen to the 3rd round.  So my point is that comparing him to to other #1 picks doesn't really get you anything.

And finally to answer your question, I think the reasonable expectation is that your QB improves each year.  I think after Lawrence started to look like a proper QB in the second half of 2022 and the beginning of 2023, he started to regress and that's after leading the entire league in turnovers.  You can blame injuries in 2023 if you'd like, but to begin 2024 he regressed further with (and I think everyone agrees) an improved Offensive Line and a clear #1 receiver.  So my expectation would be that he improved in 2023 over 2022, and improved in 2024 over 2023.

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