Quote:Whoah there...

 

When you have a weak QB class, draftniks always overshoot QB value when in reality the clubs know their true value and that's why those QBs fall on draft day.  It happened with Clausen, Quinn, and others.  In the end, I'm not sure why anyone would have been surprised with Geno, and they shouldn't be if it happens again this year, too (especially with a deep class that doesn't seem to have much separating the so-called "top" from the middle.)  For Manuel, sometimes clubs fall in love with a guy.  Happened in TB with Josh Freeman, and someone will probably overdraft Logan Thomas because of his ideal build.   Just like planet theory for linemen, ideal sized QBs can get overdrafted.

 

A lot of this wild variance across the boards is because there didn't used to be every slappy on the planet having their own website, and every channel having half a dozen self-proclaimed draftnicks talking draft 365 days a year.

 

To be frank, there are a lot of guys out there without a clue who don't have the connections etc. who are also encouraged by their media outlets to create stories and please viewers.

 

It's a circus today, with few truly capable of doing good homework on the draft.  Gone are the Rick Gosselin's of the world who refined the art of the mock.  Now it's all talking heads cackling like hens.  Even with some questionable calls lately, I still think Mayock is the closest to the mark (even though they all miss about as much as they hit.)  What you're seeing with Mayock is that, like Gosselin, he isn't afraid to change his board as he acquires more information.  Gosselin's was a three step process, where his final was a refinement of the first two, with last minute information from the clubs (if he could get it) to shape his opinion.

 

I think that's what you're seeing here, too.  As it gets closer to the draft, the closer we get to the truth and farther away from the far-too-early premature speculation that even the seasoned drafniks put out far too early in the process (without much reason to, other than for ratings.)

 

I agree with almost everything you've posted, save for the last paragraph.

 

I'm not convinced that we get any closer to the truth by the end of the process than the beginning, and I believe the wide amount of variance among media outlets bears this out.  Sure, you have guys who mock players in odd places to "shake things up" and guys who have absolutely no clue what they're talking about, but even the ones who do the research and talk to nameless scouts and GMs who they cite have no way to verify whether they're being fed misinformation or outright falsehood.

 

Essentially, the only real feel we have for what the 32 teams think of a guy is the draft itself.  The rest is all rabid speculation.

 

I do miss Gosselin.  Whatever happened to that guy?  Even Mayock, now that he's such a name, seems to do less work on the draft than he used to, IMO.

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