Quote:I'm just going by history.

 

In the eleventh hour, a lot comes out just before it actually happens.

 

Gosselin has trusted contacts that made his mocks the most accurate.  It wasn't luck or guessing (which always comes up short.)

 

As far as the hype, you stick to the facts and learn who to tune in or tune out.  I'll use Bridgewater as an example.  I questioned where all the hype was coming from, pointed out the flaws NFL scouts don't like, and certainly wasn't surprised when the wheels fell off the bandwagon... and all of a sudden we're back at Planet Theory with Clowney being the talk.  The other option being what John McClain wrote about long ago, that if it wasn't Clowney it's Bortles/Manziel because he feels they want a QB bad.  I was met with insults and smack talk from everyone who insisted Bridgewater was the best player in the draft, because they were listening/looking for what they wanted to hear/see and tuned out the whispers that had been there all along in the open.  That wasn't guesswork or luck, it was tuning out the hype and paying attention to what was important.  Yes, it's a very big deal when a QB can't throw a football without WR gloves.  It's a very big deal when a QB is rail thin, and it's also a big deal when there's an eerie silence about the QB who is supposedly the best in the class since they're usually the unquestionable first overall pick.  All the signs were there from the start that indicated something wasn't adding up.

 

This happens all the time.  The rise of Cam Newton, Mario Williams, the fall of Geno Smith and others... sooner or later these stories get traction.  You can reference Vic's hint at the Jaguars going after Alualu on the radio show a few days prior to the draft.  Ditto Caldwell saying he'd take the available of the two tackles last year.  It all comes better in to focus as the draft comes nearer.  Not everything, obviously.  But as you get closer to the draft we get closer to the truth, even though you'll never have it all.  The unexpected still happens.

 

There is a difference between reading the tea leaves due to your league contacts in the last minute to determine what team takes what player at what point in the first round and determining which prospects will have successful NFL careers.

 

If I say Bridgewater is a top 3 pick who will have a HOF career, he gets picked in the top 3 and bombs, was I right?

 

If you say Bridgewater is vastly overrated, he drops to the bottom of the first round, but has a career that warrants HOF consideration, were you right?

 

I don't know you, and I don't say this to insult you, but I think it's doubtful you have the league contacts Rick Gosselin, McClain, or Ketchman has.

 

Even with the contacts, it doesn't preclude them from being wrong when it comes to talent evaluation.  Ketchman is the same guy who hyped Beanie Wells and Rob Pettiti.  We all know how they turned out.

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