Quote:There is a difference between reading the tea leaves due to your league contacts in the last minute to determine what team takes what player at what point in the first round and determining which prospects will have successful NFL careers.

 

If I say Bridgewater is a top 3 pick who will have a HOF career, he gets picked in the top 3 and bombs, was I right?

 

If you say Bridgewater is vastly overrated, he drops to the bottom of the first round, but has a career that warrants HOF consideration, were you right?

 

I don't know you, and I don't say this to insult you, but I think it's doubtful you have the league contacts Rick Gosselin, McClain, or Ketchman has.

 

Even with the contacts, it doesn't preclude them from being wrong when it comes to talent evaluation.  Ketchman is the same guy who hyped Beanie Wells and Rob Pettiti.  We all know how they turned out.

Whether he eventually succeeds or not isn't the point. Over-hyping by the media means predicting that the organizations have a higher value on a player than they actually do. It's not necessarily a knock on a players potential, it could be they see some risk factors or extra things he will have to overcome to achieve his potential that pushes the player down the board.

 

A mock draft isn't supposed to reflect an individuals personal preference but rather how the teams will value certain players. The guy you may feel is the top player could be mocked at the 15th spot because the actual teams preferences and idea of value may push him back to that spot. What you have to remember is that the people creating mocks aren't the ones drafting. It shouldn't be a reflection of their own personal preferences.

 

You can expect the same payoff from the 3rd or the 20th pick, it's just with the 3rd pick teams want the better odds. They want the fewer question marks concerning the player.

 

Don't get risk and potential confused. Everyone can see the potential in Bridgewater. Where he is drafted will more reflect the perceived risk of him not being able to achieve his potential due to his question marks.

 

He is not the prototypical mold for a NFL QB. That could be seen as enough of a risk factor by some teams to push him down the board. That doesn't mean he can't be perceived as potentially the best player in the draft.

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