It's very likely that Luck may never reach the heights that Manning reached as a QB; however, at every level thus far, Luck has outperformed Manning. What I mean by that is if you compare their college numbers, Luck's are better:

 

Manning: 62.5 Completion %,  8.1 Y/A,  89TDs,   33 INTs,  147.1 Rating

Luck:        67   Completion %,  9.5 Y/A,  82 TDs,  22 INTs,  162.8 Rating

 

And as mentioned earlier, Luck's first two years in the NFL are more favorable to Manning's so there are some indicators that show that if Luck continues this trajectory, he could be a top-tier QB. A lot depends on how well he does this year. Let's also not forget that Luck is far more mobile than Manning and that attribute--the ability to create on the run-- is an intangible with a value that's hard to measure.

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