Quote:I watched a couple of episodes of "Caught in the Draft," the ESPN documentary about past drafts, last night.   It really brought home how inexact the science of drafting is.   GMs in "war rooms" and TV pundits were arguing and agonizing about the picks, and half the first rounders wound up being busts, and guys who went undrafted (ex: Kurt Warner) are probably going to the Hall of Fame when their careers are over. 

 

We analyze, we think, we over-think, we act like we can really rank these guys, we argue like we are so sure of what we know.  But if you watch that show, you will come to the conclusion that no matter whom we draft, there is a 50-50 chance he will have a very disappointing career.  

 

Then Trent Dilfer came on and said if he didn't work for a network, he wouldn't watch the draft at all, and he couldn't believe how the draft is sold to the public with the fans eating it up.   Kudos to him for being honest.  

 

We're all like, oh my God, if we take Sammy Watkins instead of Khalil Mack, we are sunk.   It's ridiculous.   It's a total crapshoot.   No matter whom we pick, someone will get picked in the 4th or 5th round by some team (hopefully us) who will wind in the Hall of Fame, and two out of the top five picks will be busts.   I can practically guarantee it.   And the busts will be random.  We have no clue who will be great and who will be busts.   Past experience tells us that. 

 

It is indeed a crap shoot.  Nobody can know with any certainty if a player will pan out at the next level or not.  There are all sorts of factors that can impact their success or failure. 

 

Shocked that Dilfer would dare to say such things.  Just because he qualified it doesn't mean it paints him in a better light.  He's right, but still, you don't bite the hand that feeds you.

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