Quote:So the argument is to go Mack because only one top five WR made the SB with the team that drafted him over the past 20 years. So how many top five LBs made it to the SB with the team that drafted him over the past 20 years? Let's see...


 

You can't say Von Miller because he was injured throughout the Broncos Super Bowl year. The Seahawks who just won the SB last year drafted LB Aaron Curry in 2009, however, but he's now a major bust having left for the Raiders in 2011 before being cut by the Giants in the offseason last year. AJ Hawk was the #5 pick by the Packers in 2006, and he helped them win the Super Bowl in February 2011, so that's one. Lavar Arrington was the #2 pick in 2000 and Kevin Hardy was the #2 pick in 1996, but neither player ever made it to the SB. Trev Alberts was the fifth overall pick by the Colts in '94, but he's known as one of the biggest busts in league history having played only two seasons before retiring due to injuries. Alberts carreer stats include 7


starts, 4 sacks, 3 forced fumbles and 1 INT.


 

So over the past 20 years only one LB (AJ Hawk) made it to the SB with the team that drafted him. So why should the Jaguars go Mack over Watkins?

 

You shouldn't just look at LBs when considering Mack.  You should also look at DE.

But, let's see... 

1) You forgot Willie McGinest, 1994, pick 4, played in 4 super bowls

2) You forgot Cedric Jones, 1996, though he did not have a big impact on that Super Bowl team.

3) You forgot Peter Boulware, 1997, pick 4.

4) Since we should include DE, add Julius Peppers to the list.

 

So three LB have made it to the Super Bowl with the team that drafted them top-5 in the past 20 years.  And at least two DE.  When you consider that a team drafting in the top 5 is exceedingly unlikely to make a Super Bowl in the subsequent 7-8 years, that's a decent record.  

 

 

In the last 20 years, 20 DE or LB have been drafted in the top 5, and 8 WR.  

so

((5) DE or LB who went to the SB at least once with the team that drafted him top five / 20 DE or LB selected top five) = 25% chance.

(1) WR who went to the super bowl at least once with the team that drafted him top five / 8 WR selected top five) = 13% chance.

 


I agree with you that playing in a Super Bowl may be too high of a bar.  But I don't have other easily-accessible information about if the team was successful after that player was drafted.  

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