Quote:Well there you go,see? That shows me how little I know about this stuff. It makes sense that the odd's makers would concern themselves not with what they think will really happen so much as how they think the betting will go. So, I guess what this means is that the Vegas odd's makers still think that the majority of betting will not favor the Jag's. That still doesn't sound too good....

 

 

As a statistician, the mathematical model for Vegas is fascinating. They always want to construct the games, bets, etc. so that they win no matter the outcome and that takes careful consideration. For straight up/down bets, the model that works is if the money is evenly split and the winners get less than double their bet. Almost any other scenario the house could lose depending on the outcome. So considering that fans generally will vote on their teams, the least popular teams will almost always be undervalued by Vegas and the big market teams will almost always be overvalued.

 

Additionally, the Jags failed to make the over either of the last two years. Gamblers often bet trends and that's further going to push more money to the under side of the equation.

 

Personally, I think the over on the Jaguars is one of the better bets out there because while Henne's up-and-down nature will keep him from ever taking a team deep into the playoffs, it will also enable us to get some wins when he has his up games.

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