I'll be honest, I'm tempering any expectation of Blackmon based on the fact that I doubt he can fix his issues.  I've read a poster mention that those being pessimistic are rationalizing.  Well, to be too optimistic is also a rationalization that allows for optimism.  That's how the whole thing works, psychologically speaking. Our minds create a premise to validate our world view.

 

With that said, I don't think anyone wants to just cut bait on this guy.  It's a really sad situation--Someone with huge talent and huge potential that is apparently throwing it away because of an addiction.  But in life, things like this happen and we are seeing it from an outside perspective.  The only reason we care and are discussing it is because he's a Jaguar.  On a personal level I hope he turns it around.  But I'm old enough to know that even if he's reinstated and stays on the straight and narrow, he'll eventually have a relapse.  The odds are stacked against him.  If he's unlucky enough to have a relapse during a drug test, well he'll more than likely be cut. 

 

I guess my question would be what happens if he gets another dirty test result after he's reinstated?  Is it a lifetime ban?  That to me seems pretty harsh if it's just alcohol and/or THC.  But I'm not sure how strict the substance abuse policy is anymore.  

 

But let's face it, addicts almost always relapse at least once during recovery... Anywhere from 60-90% of addicts relapse in the 1st year...  It's not a good sign for Blackmon, if he's not taking this thing seriously.  

 

I will say that based on his inability to stay on the field and the fact that the probability of him being caught again with a dirty test, I do think that some folks are over-hyping Blackmon's abilities.  We're talking about a football player and the person that he is.  This is not a fantasy football or Madden situation where we just look at measurables and compare them with YAC, Drop%, #ofTargets, ETC...

 

We're talking about a real person that has real demons.  His talent on the football field is dwarfed by the constraints of the drug policy of the NFL and his apparent drug and alcohol abuse problem.  Therefore, to just say how elite his potential is seems to be ignoring the fact that he cannot stay on the field due to his addictions for a sustained amount of time.

 

That is my rationalization.  Maybe Blackmon can be the exception and turn it around without any relapse.  The odds are against that.  If he does relapse I believe he's gone.  Therefore, I'm not pinning any hopes on this guy.

 

For someone to say that "with Blackmon we'll have the greatest WR corps of all time" (paraphrase) is just so ridiculous. 1.  There's no guarantee Blackmon is a WR long enough to actually see his talent.  2.  Pinning hopes on 2 WRs that have not even played a game in the NFL is not... wise.

 

Let's hope for the best.  Caldwell and Bradley are correct in assuming Blackmon's value as a "luxury".  That's all he is.  And most often, in business and in life, luxuries eventually become liabilities...  Once a luxury becomes a liability hard decisions are made.  

 

We're not at hard decisions--yet.  

 

But our franchise is not in a position to hold on to luxuries for very long. 

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