Quote:Personally, I base it on the performances over his career.  As you say, it's been hashed over and over again, but most people understand what Henne is; it's only a small contingent that say he's a bad player.  He's a good backup who I hope to heck we keep and he'll be a serviceable starter while we get Bortles ready (projecting his stats from last year, and assuming about a 5% increase in efficiency he should throw for nearly 4000 yards and 20 TDs).  I know that some people like to throw out his good games, claiming they happen during 'garbage time' but I guess you could claim that about any player you didn't like.

 

And this is where you're going off the reservation, Kimosabe. You're expecting a performance that doesn't have any statistical precedent.

 

I'm not saying Henne couldn't suddenly become "Good." Literally anything could happen ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_Can_...78_film%29 ) but to expect a guy who has consistently been a mediocre backup level player to suddenly have an outlier year isn't realistic.

 

You're falling into the fallacy of expecting the statistical outliers to suddenly become the norm.

 

Henne had some statistically average game against some very poor and/or unmotivated opponents last year. If you think they're an indication of what you're going to get as a regular occurrence over the 2014 season then you're being unrealistic.

 

It'd be like going into 2012 expecting Gabbert to play every game with the kind of statistical output he had against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

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