Quote:And this is where you're going off the reservation, Kimosabe. You're expecting a performance that doesn't have any statistical precedent.

 

I'm not saying Henne couldn't suddenly become "Good." Literally anything could happen ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heaven_Can_...78_film%29 ) but to expect a guy who has consistently been a mediocre backup level player to suddenly have an outlier year isn't realistic.

 

You're falling into the fallacy of expecting the statistical outliers to suddenly become the norm.

 

Henne had some statistically average game against some very poor and/or unmotivated opponents last year. If you think they're an indication of what you're going to get as a regular occurrence over the 2014 season then you're being unrealistic.

 

It'd be like going into 2012 expecting Gabbert to play every game with the kind of statistical output he had against the Tampa Bay Bucs.

 

What you're missing is that *given the circumstances of his career* (note the emphasis), his statistics actually point to a guy that could easily have some improvement with a correct supporting cast.  I don't think that it's  unreasonable to think so.  For one thing, let's not forget that he's never been in a particularly stable environment.  Moreover, I think most people expect the Jag's defense and offense to be improved next year which should give the offense more chances and the offense should be more efficient.  Ok, I'll admit it's possible I could be wrong and new players may not pan out and some players that are expected to take forward steps might regress.  Sure, that's why they play the games.  Still with the expectation that the offense helps Henne out I think a 5% improvement in his efficiency is perfectly reasonable.

 

Now with that said, last year, in 13 starts he threw for 3241 yards, and 13 TDs and 14 INTs.  This is with virtually no help in the running game (Jags ranked 31st in the NFL in 2013), multiple injuries on the offensive line, and a limited number of opportunities (defense ranked 27th in the league last year and 26th in opponent's 3rd down efficiency).

 

Still with me?  Now take his YPG, and multiple that by 5% you get 262 ypg.  Multiple that by 16 for an entire season and you get 4192 yards.  For TDs and interceptions it becomes a little more complicated.  Since TDs are directly proportional to the efficiency of the offense and the number of opportunities, just adding 5% to the total doesn't tell the whole story.   You can pick a figure but if a guy throws for 4192 and the Jags get enough chances, I don't know how he can avoid throwing for at least 20.  Suffice it to say that being on the field and moving the ball more will result in more scoring.  INTs are similarly difficult to project but based on the assumption that another year in the system, more reliable receivers, better protection, these could decrease, remain the same or even increase a bit over a 16 game schedule.  Still with that said, it's not like Henne had an unreasonable amount of INTs last year.  Fourteen actually puts him in pretty good company.  Eli Manning had 27!

 

With all that said, the guy may not get the chance.  If he only plays 4 games or 8 games or whatever, he's obviously not going to gather those kinds of statistics, but as a guy that should have the capacity based on a reasonable extrapolation of past performances, he's a guy I'd like to see stay on the roster.

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